Strength of the monsoon westerlies over the southern parts of the Arabian Sea has reduced from Sunday and is likely to reduce further during the next five days, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said on Monday. Under this scenario, rainfall activity may reduce further over Kerala and Karnataka during this period.
During the 24 hours ending Monday morning, the monsoon came down heavily (rainfall in cm) over Balod-23; Dhamtari-20; Shirali-17; Chhota Udepur, Honavar and Gondia-15 each; Agumbe-14; Idukki, Vadodra and Baroda-12; Mount Abu, Kudulu and Cherrapunji-11each; Mangaluru, Cannur, Jaipur, Jabalpur and North Lakhimpur-10 each; Valprai, Karnal and Nizamabad-9 each; Anandpur Sahib, Rajgarh, Sawai Madhopur, Hanamkonda-8 each; and Kochi and Ambikapur-7 each.
Extremely heavy rainfall observed at isolated places over Chhattisgarh while it was heavy to very rainfall at isolated areas over Coastal Karnataka, Vidarbha and Gujarat region and heavy at isolated places over Rajasthan, Assam, Meghalaya, Kerala, EastMadhya Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Tamil Nadu and Telangana, the IMD said.
Fresh low-pressure area up
But a fresh low-pressure area (second in the current series) has formed over the North-West Bay, crossed coast, and moved into Chhattisgarh and later East Madhya Pradesh on Monday. The IMD said that the low may get a move to the North-West and merge with the larger monsoon trough lying along a North-West to South-East direction over the next two days.
The monsoon trough was in its near-normal position on Monday evening with the low-pressure area embedded in it. The East-West shear zone of monsoon turbulence in the upper level passes across Central India, having left the South Peninsula behind. The shear zone decides the area active of monsoon play embedded rain-generating system/s spearheading the proceedings.
Meanwhile, the IMD has said on Monday that another low-pressure area (third in the current series) may form over North-West Bay around August 13, with its short to medium model guidance not ruling out a fourth one following close on its heels. Thus August is playing true to form, when suddenly it prompts the Bay to wake up into activity, sending monsoon to a peak.
More low’s may brew in Bay
The IMD sees reasonably widespread to widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over major parts of North-West India for the next three days. The likely swathe of affected geography includes the hills of the North-West and adjoining plains of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and East Rajasthan, some of which nurse a rain deficit.
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places is also being forecast for parts of Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat region four days until August 14 with further enhancement of rainfall intensity likely over NorthGujarat and South-West Madhya Pradesh on August 13 and 14, the IMD outlook said.
An extended outlook for August 15-17 says that fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/thundershowers may lash West, Central, East and North-East India and along the northern parts of West Coast. Isolated heavy to very heavy falls are forecast for East-CentralIndia, The North-Eastern States, northern parts of the West Coast, Gujarat state, Rajasthan and parts of Uttar Pradesh.