Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over coastal Tamil Nadu during this week, a forecast by the US Climate Prediction Centre has warned.
The week that follows (November 1 to 7) will see the heavy rain belt becoming active over west Sri Lanka, south Tamil Nadu and adjoining Kerala, the forecast added.
Monsoon onsetThus, the North-East monsoon will likely make an eventful onset over the South Indian Peninsula –something the India Met Department expects would materialise in two days’ time.
Fishermen going into the sea along and off Lakshadweep and Tamil Nadu have been advised to observe caution in view of the developing hostile weather.
The Met attributes the weather to twin low-pressure areas evolving respectively over South-East Arabian Sea and South-West Bay of Bengal off Sri Lanka.
It expects the system in the Arabian Sea to start intensifying from Tuesday.
The Bay counterpart would take longer to assert itself, given space constraints dictated by the Sri Lanka/Tamil Nadu coasts.
Likely cycloneThe European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts sees a full-blown cyclone developing in the outer Arabian Sea and heading towards Yemen/Somali coasts.
According to India Met, the likely cyclone may be racing towards southern Oman (just north of Yemen) for making the landfall.
The European Centre says that the Bay of Bengal system would reach the Tamil Nadu coast as a weaker storm but flood the area with punishing rain during the week.
It may pick strength east of Sri Lanka on Wednesday, approach the Kodiakkarai-Velankanni-Nagore-Karaikal stretch for a landfall, weaken a bit, and climb up the coast towards Chennai.
Heavy rainIt will regain some strength over Chennai and off the Andhra Pradesh coast and run up further along the coast of Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal through the weekend.
The track along the East Coast would be primarily decreed by the Arabian Sea cyclone, preventing the rain-bearing Bay system to venture deeper into the interior of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.
The rains would, therefore, become weaker towards the western half of the South Peninsula (parts of West Tamil Nadu) to being normal to below normal during the week, says the US forecast.
Meanwhile, West and North-West India (including Gujarat and Mumbai-Konkan) are expected to come under a wet spell during this week and into the next. The IMD has forecast hailstorm for parts of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh.