Heavy rain will return to West Coast and keep it under a spell for next five days in line with the buzz developing over the Bay of Bengal, though getting delayed than expected. This is because an existing low-pressure area over East India had moved to Odisha in close vicinity, but India Meteorological Department (IMD) said it had weakened into a cyclonic circulation and moved away to Jharkhand.
Double trouble over land
Two such monsoon circulations cannot exist in close proximity except on rare occasions. By Monday evening, the existing one had moved away giving some space for the Bay to throw up the next. The IMD expects this to happen over the next two days, as against Monday as was predicted initially. This has the potential to grow into a low-pressure area and further into a depression, per its initial assessment.
Rains for West Coast
In any case, active monsoon conditions are predicted to develop over the West Coast and adjoining rain-deficient interior Maharashtra. Accordingly, a calibrated rise in intensity and spread of rainfall is indicated over the next five days over parts of Konkan and adjoining Ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra. Heavy to very heavy rainfall with isolated extremely heavy falls is expected during this period.
Increase in rainfall is also expected over parts of Marathwada with likely heavy falls at isolated places. Thunderstorms accompanied with lightning, gusty winds are also expected over parts of Marathwada and Madhya Maharashtra until Tuesday, following which the rain activity will pick up in phases.
Monsoon trough alert
As if in anticipation, the eastern end of the monsoon trough has reverted back to the ideal alignment in which it dips into the the waters, over East-Central Bay on Monday. The trough will act as an atmospheric highway for the system to travel to interior East and Central India, piloting a fresh rain wave. But forecasts suggest it may loiter along the Odisha-West Bengal coast for a couple of days.
Rain surplus drains out
Meanwhile, on Monday the all-India rainfall surplus of two per cent — mainly from the productive but unexpected run of cyclone Biparjoy over West India and adjoining North-West India, followed by massive interaction of a western disturbance and monsoon easterlies from the Bay of Bengal — has drained out entirely after the torrential rain lifted and a lean patch emerged afresh over East India.