Rice exports from India, the world second-largest producer, may go up by 32 per cent to five million tonnes this year, according to the International Grains Council (IGC).

Shipments from neighbouring country Pakistan too are expected to see a jump of 32 per cent to 3.7 mt from 2.8 mt, IGC said in the latest report.

India’s rice exports are projected to increase to five mt this year from 3.8 mt in 2011, said IGC, which forecast rice exports for five major exporters.

Forecast for India is based on assumption that the government will continue non-basmati rice exports that was allowed in September 2011 and in anticipation of higher production.

India has kept a target of a record 102 mt of rice production in 2011-12 crop year (July-June). Basmati rice shipments are allowed at a minimum export price (MEP) of USD 900 per tonne. Pakistan does not follow any MEP regime.

According to the IGC report, barring India and Pakistan, rice exports from Thailand, Vietnam and the US are expected to be lower in the current calendar year.

Global shipments

While shipments from Thailand may drop to 7.2 mt in 2012 from 10.5 mt last year, rice exports from Vietnam are likely to decline to 6.5 mt from 7.1 mt in the concerned period. Similarly, shipments from the US are expected fall to 3.1 mt in 2012 from 3.3 mt last year.

Exports from other countries are seen declining to 6.3 mt in 2012 against an estimated 6.8 mt last year.

As regards rice imports, IGC noted that the total global shipments are seen to be down at 31.5 mt this year against 34.1 mt last year, due to significantly reduced imports to markets in Far East Asia.

Production forecasts

The world’s rice production is projected to go up marginally to 459 mt in the 2011-12 crop year (July-June) because of increases in Asia, notably in China and India, it said.

Inventories in the five major exporters are projected to rise by 10 per cent to an all-time high of 31.9 mt due to increases in India and Thailand, it added.

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