The International Grains Council (IGC) has lowered its global wheat production forecast for 2011-12 to 667 million tonnes as crop prospects in countries like the US are not bright due to unfavourable weather.
Earlier, in April, the London-based organisation had pegged the global wheat output at 672 mt this year. Forecast for the current year is still higher than the 649-mt output last year.
“The outlook for 2011-12 wheat crops has been affected by unfavourable weather in a number of countries, especially in the EU and US, and the forecast of global production is therefore reduced by 5 mt to 667 mt,” the IGC said in its latest Grains Report.
Global demand is expected to touch a new record of 669 mt this year, it said.
“Use (of wheat) for ethanol is growing less quickly than expected, including in the EU, while greater use of alternative feeds, including barley, is expected to cut the feeding of wheat in Russia,” the report said.
Global trade is still forecast to expand by 5 mt, mainly in North Africa, Near East Asia and the EU, it noted.
India, the world’s second-biggest producer of wheat, is expected to harvest a record 84.27 mt this year, according to government data. China, with more than 100-mt output, is the largest wheat producing country in the world.
With respect to global maize production, the global body said that increased planting and higher yields are expected to result in a record output of 848 mt in 2011-12 against 812 mt last year.
Larger crops in some countries, including the EU and Indonesia, are expected to limit the global maize trade to 92.5 mt, down by 1.5 per cent from the previous year, the IGC said.