Cyclone Mocha over the South-East Bay of Bengal has practically stalled from Wednesday night through the whole of Thursday when it intensified twice from the level of a depression from overnight. The slow speed of lateral movement over warm ocean waters will only help the evolving system to whip up incremental moisture and become a likely monster storm.

This has prompted India Meteorological Department (IMD) to revise and upgrade alerts with respect to the strength and intensity of the storm that is at least two full days away from making landfall. The IMD has now withdrawn its outlook for the weakening of what it expects would be a very severe cyclone as it approaches coast for making a landfall on the forenoon of Sunday.

Landfall near Sittwe, Myanmar

The cyclone was located on Thursday afternoon about 510 km West of Port Blair; 1,160 km South- South-West of Cox’s Bazar (Bangladesh) and 1,080 km south-southwest of Sittwe (Myanmar). It will recurve to the North-North-East for onward movement with further intensification from Friday morning. Significantly, the landfall point has been shifted close to Sittwe in Myanmar as Mocha prepares to explode in a landfall over the larger South-East Bangladesh and North Myanmar on Sunday.

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The deep depression, a spin away from cyclone over the Bay of Bengal, represented an oval of rain and thundershowers (green) and spots (pink) of thunderstorms. It brought evening thunderstorms along Kerala and Karnataka coasts on Wednesday.

IMD upgrades storm alert in Bay to very severe cyclone by Friday morning

Higher wind speeds

At the time of landfall, the very severe cyclone will feature maximum sustained wind speeds of 150-160 km/hr gusting to 175 km/hr, much higher than the 110-120 km/hr gusting to 135 km/hr as earlier thought. The US Joint typhoon Warning Centre estimates Mocha to whip up even higher wind speeds of 175 km/hr gusting to 212 km/hr. Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System estimates that at least 2.95 million people are at risk from the danger posed by the approaching storm.

The IMD has warned that a ‘very rough’ to ‘phenomenal’ sea (wave heights from 30 ft to beyond 46 ft) rustled up by the storm could affect fishing, marine operations, and offshore activities. Tourism and offshore activities and shipping near Andaman & Nicobar Islands need to be halted until Saturday. The warning is variously applicable for South-East, East-Central, West-Central, and North-east Bay until Sunday. 

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