India Met Department (IMD) seems to have dismissed alarmist reports that projects a poor rains in August and has largely retained its original forecast for a normal monsoon.

In fact, it has gone one step ahead, and expects that August rainfall would be higher than forecast in June, an update issued by it around noon said.

The rainfall during August is likely to be 96 per cent the long-period average (LPA) with a model error of plus or minus nine per cent, which is higher than predicted in June.

Quantitatively, the rainfall for the country as a whole during the second half of the season (August and September) is likely to be 95 per cent of the LPA with a model error of plus or minus eight per cent.

The mid-season rainfall scenario realised till the end of July suggests that distribution of rainfall is very good over all parts of the country except Bihar, Jharkhand and the North-Eastern States.

"Such a scenario of favourable distribution of rainfall is expected to continue during rest of monsoon season so as to remain favourable for agricultural operations," the IMD said.

Speaking to BusinessLine , KJ Ramesh, Director-General, IMD, said that the national forecaster is not mulling any change in the overall monsoon outlook.

"We expect that the season will end up delivering a performance along the lines that we had projected in May - which is between 96- to 104 per cent of LPA - making it a normal monsoon."

He described as exaggerated any fears of a developing El Nino, considered a monsoon killer, in the Equatorial Pacific, saying June to September season is likely to stay safe of the Pacific factor.

There is no global model saying yet that the warming trend in the Pacific would cross the threshold level to be of concern for the Indian monsoon.

"On the other hand, almost all are hinting about a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) developing in the Indian Ocean in the intervening period, which would be a blessing in disguise for us," Ramesh said.

The IOD has positive and negative phases and mimics the El Nino-La Nina phases in the Indian Ocean next door. A positive IOD helps the Indian monsoon while a negative phase is considered harmful.

This, if turning to be true, would go to neutralise any adverse impact from the developments in the Equatorial Pacific and hold the monsoon in good stead, he added.

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