The India Meteorological Department on Tuesday said the north-east monsoon, which brings rains to five meteorological subdivisions — Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and south interior Karnataka — will likely be above-normal, quantitatively more than 112 per cent of its long period average (LPA) of 33.4 cm.

After the south-west monsoon ended the season with 8 per cent surplus rains, potentially boosting the prospects of a bumper harvest of crops in the north, the forecast of a good rainfall from the north-east monsoon will further brighten the prospects of the winter-sown rabi crops in the country as a whole, experts said.

“This year’s monsoon is unique in many ways as 89 per cent of the geographical area received normal or over above normal rainfall. Not much damage of crops reported due to floods and in Rajasthan there is record storage of water in reservoirs. Central India will take advantage of surplus rainfall during September as most rabi areas are sown on conserved moisture. Prospects of agriculture look quite bright to have record production in most of the crops,” said former agriculture commissioner J S Sandhu.

Monthly forecast

During a virtual press conference, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said according to Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) probability forecast, many areas of central India, south peninsular region and some parts of north east may have above-normal rainfall. However, most parts of north-west and some parts of north-east as well as the southern most parts of India are likely to receive “normal to below-normal” rainfall, he said.

Realising the monthly forecast for October, the IMD chief also said that the rainfall averaged over the country as a whole is most likely to be above normal (>115 per cent of LPA of 7.54 cm). But, the spatial distribution suggests some parts from the north-east and north-west regions as well as a few pockets in the southern peninsula may have “normal to below normal” rainfall this month.

The IMD said above-normal temperatures (both maximum and minimum) are likely in most parts of the country in October, except for certain areas in central India and the adjoining southern peninsula.

La Nina chances

Mohapatra also said many models indicate prevailing neutral IOD conditions to continue during the upcoming months. IMD’s said there is 71 per cent chances of La Nina to emerge during October-November, he said.

Meanwhile, IMD released the data of monsoon rainfall during June-September season which showed that Rajasthan had 56 per cent surplus rains, Gujarat 48 per cent and Goa 46 per cent. Maharashtra, too, reported 26 per cent surplus rains and both Madhya Pradesh and Tamil Nadu 18 per cent above normal, each. Telangana has reported 29 per cent above normal precipitation in the season while Andhra Pradesh 27 per cent surplus.

The weather bureau said a total of 1,492 people have died during extreme weather events in the monsoon season this year, out of which 895 people lost their lives due to floods and rain-related incidents, while 597 fatalities were caused by thunderstorms and lightning strikes.

The country also experienced 525 heavy rainfall events (between 115.6 mm and 204.5 mm), which is the highest in the last five years. There were 96 extremely heavy rainfall events (above 204.5 mm) during the 2024 monsoon.

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