The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised the monsoon forecast for June to “below normal” from the earlier prediction of “normal” rainfall after the monsoon’s progress has stalled over the past few days.
Rainfall between 92 per cent and 108 per cent of the long period average (LPA) of 166.9 mm is categorised as ‘normal’, whereas it is ‘below normal’ if precipitation for a month is less than 92 per cent of the LPA.
“Normal to above normal monthly rainfall is most likely over most areas of the south peninsula and some areas of the North-East. Below normal rainfall is most likely over many areas of the North-West and the adjoining Central region and some areas of North-East India,” IMD said in a statement on Tuesday night.
In its forecast for June, issued in the last week of May, IMD had said the average rainfall over the country as a whole “is most likely to be normal.”
According to a previous forecast, above normal monthly rainfall was likely over most areas of the south peninsula and adjoining areas of central India, and over isolated areas of north-west and north-east India. But “below normal” rainfall was predicted for June over many areas of northern and eastern parts of northwest India and the eastern part of Central India, and over some areas over northeast India.
Rainfall over the country as a whole during June 1-19 was 70.7 mm, which is 18 per cent less than its Long Period Average (LPA) of 86.7 mm. The precipitation was 1 per cent above average on Wednesday, IMD data show. So far, monsoon rainfall is deficient in all regions except south peninsula where it is 15 per cent above normal. The east and north-east meteorological subdivision comprising all NE states as well as Bihar, West Bengal and Jharkhand is deficient by 8 per cent while Central India has received 32 per cent below normal rain.
The north-west India comprising Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and some other states has received 10.8 mm rainfall which is 70 per cent less than normal until June 19.
IMD said that the Southwest Monsoon advanced into some parts of Nicobar Islands on May 19 and simultaneously reached Kerala and some north eastern states on May 30, two days before normal schedule for Kerala and six days ahead in the north-east. Thereafter, the north-ward progress of monsoon was gradual and it covered entire states of Kerala, Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Goa and Telangana as well as most parts of southern Maharashtra and some parts of south Chhattisgarh, south Odisha, most parts of West Bengal, Sikkim and entire north eastern States by June 12.
However, monsoon has not progressed thereafter and the Northern Limit on June 19 passes through Navsari, Jalgaon, Amravati, Chandrapur, Bijapur, Sukma, Malkangiri, Vizianagaram and Islampur.