India Met Department (IMD) has upgraded the prognosis for very severe cyclone 'Mekunu' saying it could intensify further as 'extremely severe cyclone' ahead of landfall.

The powerful storm was traced to about 180 km East-North-East of Socotra Islands and 440 km South-South-East of Salalah, in Oman, latest. It is very likely to intensify further by tomorrow, move nearly northwards and then north-northwestwards and cross South Oman-South-East Yemen coasts, IMD said.

Clues on monsoon

It would make landfall buffeted by wind speeds of up to 160-170 km/hr gusting to 190 km/hr, falling under category-2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale of storm intensity. The landfall and subsequent weakening of the storm is now expected to help the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal closer to home to get into their act to host the monsoon.

Rains are forecast to scale up over Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and Lakshadweep gradually from tomorrow before they precipitate the monsoon around May 29 (Tuesday next).

India Met Department (IMD) has forecast heavy rain at a few places over Kerala with with heavy rain at a few places and heavy to very heavy rain over Lakshadweep on Sunday. Heavy rain is also likely over Coastal and South Interior Karnataka, and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Arunachal Pradesh and the rest of the North-East the same day.

Heavy rain forecast

The proceedings would assume a fresh urgency the next day with Kerala likely getting lashed by heavy to very heavy rain punctuated by extremely heavy rain at a few places.

Lakshadweep, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka as well as the North-East too would witness heavy spells as the monsoon readies to establish its pincer-like grip over land. This would come about after the monsoon picks its pieces on the trail of very severe cyclone 'Mekunu' and reorganises itself with its feet firmly grounded in both the peninsular seas.

A well-defined troughs both on the West and East coasts with embedded vortices would drive the monsoon in what looks like a strong onset phase from this week. A strong offshore trough in the South-East Arabian Sea off Kerala-Karnataka, topped up its own 'vortex,' not quite seen in the recent past, would be a highlight.

Strong troughs

To the other side, the trough off the Tamil Nadu coast and the rest of the East Coast is forecast to whip up its own low-pressure area, headed towards North-North-East. Models are of the view that the Arabian Sea vortex go on to set up a low-pressure area, though travelling away from the Goa-Mumbai coast towards Oman.

This could be a distraction, but not for long, since models suspect that the Bay on the other side could come out with another 'low' to keep monsoon on an even keel. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction are in agreement with the IMD's outlook here.

Satellite pictures show intense and active clouds lording it over Maldives, Sri Lanka and into the Bay of Bengal, in a typical scenario associated with monsoon onset. A heavy band of clouding moving into the Andaman & Nicobar Islands had extended cover over most of the Bay, with the seas to its South-East infested with thunderheads.

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