The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said the South-West monsoon will set in earlier than normal this year on May 27.
The IMD’s prediction comes on the heels of private forecaster Skymet’s prediction earlier in the day. The private forecaster said the monsoon, a lifeline for Indian agriculture, would set on May 26.
The normal date of onset of the South-West monsoon, which is key for kharif crops, is June 1. IMD, however, said its model has an error of plus or minus four days.
The official weather forecaster said initial monsoon rains are being experienced over the South Andaman sea. The monsoon winds have advanced north-westwards across the Bay of Bengal.
As per the normal dates of the onset of monsoon onset, the South-West monsoon advances over the Andaman Sea around May 22, the IMD said.
“In association with enhanced cross-equatorial winds, conditions are becoming favourable for the advance of South-West monsoon into South Andaman Sea, the Nicobar Islands and some parts of south-east Bay of Bengal, around May 15,” it said in a statement.
Past data suggest that there is no association of the date of monsoon advance over the Andaman Sea either with the date of monsoon onset over Kerala or with the seasonal monsoon rainfall over the country, the IMD said.