Mumbai and adjoining areas as well as the meteorological subdivision of Madhya Maharashtra around the city of Pune witnessed severe thrashing from rain bands feeding a cyclonic circulation that shifted base from its overnight location to Vidarbha on Thursday. A supportive trough ran down from north Konkan to south Bangladesh across this circulation.
Heavy to very heavy to extremely heavy rain has been recorded over the Konkan and Madhya Maharashtra on Wednesday, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. This has effectively paused the progress of withdrawal of south-west monsoon to a line linking Firozpur, Sirsa, Churu, Ajmer, Mount Abu, Deesa, Surendranagar and Junagarh (mainly Punjab, Rajasthan and Gujarat).
Heavy rain forecast for Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Gujarat Region
Isolated extremely heavy rain will continue to lash over Konkan and Goa (including Mumbai), Madhya Maharashtra, and Gujarat Region (North Gujarat, Gandhinagar and South Gujarat) on Thursday, while isolated heavy to very heavy rain is also expected over Konkan and Goa, Gujarat state, and over Madhya Maharashtra both on Thursday and Friday. Isolated heavy rain is also expected over Konkan & Goa and Madhya Maharashtra these days, over Marathwada on Thursday, and Gujarat state, from Thursday to Saturday.
Numerical model predictions from the IMD continued to suggest a west-north-west track for the rain-driving cyclonic circulation, to get pushed to south Uttar Pradesh and later along the Himalayan foothills into Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal. Alongside, an anticyclonic circulation may form over south-east Bay of Bengal likely signalling a stop to such rain-driving circulations and end of the season. This could leave the stage open for reversal of winds from south-west to north-east.
Rain burst over east India
After west India, rainfall will be pronounced over east and north-east India and isolated extremely heavy rain is predicted for hills of West Bengal and Sikkim on Thursday. It will be isolated heavy to very heavy over Arunachal Pradesh and Assam and Meghalaya the same day and extend for another day (Friday) over Bihar and the hills. Isolated heavy rain is likely also over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya during the entire week; and over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura on Thursday, Friday and Tuesday; over the hills on Thursday and Friday; over Jharkhand, plains of West Bengal and Odisha on Thursday; and Bihar, until Saturday.
North-west, south India to see receding rains
With the rain migrating away, central India and the south peninsula may see only localised flare-ups over the next few days. Isolated heavy rain is predicted for central India over West Madhya Pradesh on Thursday and Friday and over East Madhya Pradesh on Thursday. As for north-west India, it will be isolated heavy to very heavy over East Uttar Pradesh on Friday; isolated heavy over Uttarakhand on Thursday and Friday and over West Uttar Pradesh on Friday and East Uttar Pradesh until Saturday. In the south, isolated heavy rain is likely over Kerala and Mahe on Sunday and Monday and over Telangana and Coastal Karnataka on Thursday.