IMD sets up renewed watch for another cyclone in Bay of Bengal

The build-up in the Bay of Bengal over the past three to four days is now set to culminate in the formation of a cyclone, the third in the North-East monsoon season.

A preparatory low-pressure area has been wallowing over the South Andaman Sea and adjoining South-East Bay of Bengal for sometime now.

On Tuesday evening it intensified into a depression, and was located 1,320 km south-south-east of Visakhapatnam; 1,360 km south-south-east of Gopalpur (Odisha); and 210 km west-south-west of Car Nicobar (Nicobar Islands).

It has started showing signs of gaining traction, the India Met Department said, and will do so markedly over the next three days while growing into a deep depression and a cyclonic storm.

The would-be cyclone may initially move in a west-northwest direction (looking at the Tamil Nadu coast) and later to the northwest (with an eye on Andhra Pradesh). The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts agrees with the outlook for steady intensification of the depression. It may become a full-blooded cyclone by Friday.

By Saturday, it would have parked itself into a position over the West-central Bay of Bengal, almost equi-distant from the North Tamil Nadu and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh coasts. According to the European weather agency, the strong cyclone would close in on Chennai and its neighbourhood for a landfall by Sunday/Monday and weaken drastically on impact.

But not all models agree with the projected location for landfall. The Canadian Meterological Centre sees the cyclone crossing the coast over South Coastal Andhra Pradesh around the same timeline. The National Centres for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecast Model (NCEP-GFS) agrees with the Canadian Met Centre with respect to the location of landfall but does not expect the system to be as strong.

The US Naval Global Environmental Model (Navgem) also looks to the South Andhra Pradesh coast for a prospective point for landfall.

The Japan Meteorological Agency points to a powerful storm located bang in the centre of the Bay of Bengal by Friday, the latest date for which its forecasts are available.

Meanwhile, the European agency hinted that after the storm makes landfall, the South Andaman Sea will ready itself to receive another incoming ‘low’ from the Gulf of Thailand.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said on Tuesday that the storm being generated in the Bay is a product of the monsoon trough currently active in the southern hemisphere.