The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has upgraded the weather pattern in the South Andaman Sea to a depression, as an expected low-pressure area forming around the region undergoes two rounds of intensification. The IMD had, a couple of days ago, come out with a forecast for the low to form by April 30.

Per the updated forecast issued on Monday, the low would very likely intensify into a depression by May 2. It could likely move initially in a north-north-west direction and later to the north-north-east, turning itself on a sustained track away from mainland India.

No further strengthening

In fact, the IMD said it would cross the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, and orient itself towards the Myanmar coast during April 3 to May 3. As per global models, it is unlikely to undergo any significant intensification, and could begin to lose momentum as it approaches Myanmar.

Satellite maps on Monday pointed to sea waters outside the Andaman & Nicobar Islands progressively getting cooler to the North and North-East. Cooling limits the process of evaporation and therefore the amount of moisture that the sea waters can pump into the system to fuel and sustain it.

Rough weather for islands

The IMD has predicted rough weather around the islands and surrounding sea areas. Light to moderate rainfall is likely at most places with heavy falls at isolated places over the Nicobar Islands on April 30. Intensity and spatial extent of the rain is likely to increase during the subsequent days, becoming light to moderate at most places over the entire Andaman & Nicobar Islands on May 1-3.

Heavy to very heavy falls are likely at isolated places over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands on May 1 and heavy to very heavy falls seen at a few places with extremely heavy falls at isolated places on May 2. Heavy falls are indicated at isolated places over the Andaman Islands on May 3.

Warning for fishermen

Squally winds with speeds reaching 40-50 km/hr and gusting to 60 km/hr are likely to prevail over the North Sumatra coast (Indonesian territory); the South Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands and adjoining South-East Bay of Bengal (all Indian territories) on April 30 and May 1, with wind speeds of 50-60 km/hr gusting to 70 km/hr (just missing cyclone strength) over the North Andaman Sea, the Andaman Islands, and adjoining South-East and East-Central Bay on May 2 and 3.

The sea condition will be rough to very rough (wave heights of 8-20 ft) over the North Sumatra Coast (Indonesia); the South Andaman Sea, and adjoining South-East Bay on April 30 and May 1, and over the Andaman Sea and adjoining areas of South-East and East-Central Bay on May 2 and 3. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off the North Sumatra coast; the Andaman Sea; and adjoining South-East and East-Central Bay from April 30 to May 3.