The India Met Department (IMD) has retained its original forecast of a ‘normal’ monsoon (96-104 per cent of the long period average or LPA), dismissing fears about its performance.

While there is a threat of El Nino developing in the Equatorial Pacific, there is nothing to suggest that it would affect the monsoon’s performance, said KJ Ramesh, Director-General, IMD.

“This is our considered view,” Ramesh told BusinessLine , adding that any suggestion to the contrary is ill-informed.

Earlier, private forecaster Skymet had pegged down the overall monsoon performance to 92 per cent, citing an expected prolonged weak phase in August.

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It had assessed the August rains to log 88 per cent, even throwing in a dreaded ‘break monsoon’ phase in between, and estimated that September might deliver a shade better at 93 per cent.

But the latest IMD outlook says the rains in August are expected to be normal at 96 per cent, and even higher than was predicted in June (94 per cent).

It hasn’t forecast the monsoon performance for September, but the normal outlook for the June-September season tends to rule out any major setback.

“...my personal perception is that global weather drivers, such as El Nino-La Nina, may have a role in directing the course of the monsoon before it establishes,” Ramesh said. “But once the monsoon establishes and develops a strong footing, associated dynamics can change entirely,” the IMD D-G said.

“A strong monsoon can, on its own, stop the development of El Nino or [even] delay its formation. This is because a strong monsoon is also a competent driver of weather patterns beyond the borders.”

Now that it has been established over a two-month period and is still going strong, it can set its own terms for evolving weather on a global scale.

IOD in the offing?

If the Pacific warms up beyond the threshold and sustains as such over a period, only then is El Nino declared. In the past, it has been associated with poor monsoon/drought conditions.

Almost all global models now hold that ‘neutral’ (neither El Nino nor La Nina) conditions will persist till September-end.

But what makes the monsoon case stronger is the forecast of a simultaneous warming of the western basin of the Indian Ocean, referred to as positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

The IOD has positive and negative phases with contrasting implications for the monsoon. It mimics the El Nino-La Nina in the Indian Ocean next door, and has a relatively stronger impact.

“This is a blessing in disguise since a positive IOD could neutralise any adverse impact of a warming Pacific,” Ramesh said.

“This is what emboldens us to assess that the monsoon may not get impacted and may deliver in the normal range we had projected.”

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