India is forecast to receive above-normal rains in the last month of the June-September monsoon season, brightening prospects for a bumper harvest for crops such as rice and soybeans.

Precipitation is expected to be more than 109 per cent of the long-term average of 167.9 millimetres (6.6 inches), Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the India Meteorological Department, said at a briefing in New Delhi on Saturday.  

Good soil moisture in the coming weeks is vital for farm output and economic growth in the world’s most populous nation, where hundreds of millions people rely on farming for their livelihoods. Higher supplies may bring down food inflation, which climbed 5.4 per cent in July from a year earlier, and prompt the government to ease restrictions on rice and sugar exports. 

Bountiful rainfall in September will also increase water levels in major reservoirs, setting the stage for good winter crops, such as wheat and rapeseed. 

However, some areas of the country also face the risk of extremely heavy rainfall and floods. The South Asian nation is increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather events due to climate change, including more frequent floods, cyclones, droughts, and heat waves. Hundreds of people have lost their lives this season due to floods and landslides. 

More from the IMD briefing:

  • Showers in August were almost 16 per cent more than the long-term average.
  • Rains were about 32 per cent higher than normal in the northwestern region in August, 18 per cent more in central areas, and 1 per cent higher in the southern parts; and almost 3 per cent more in eastern and northeastern states.
  • Above-normal showers likely over most parts of India during September.
  • Below-normal rains likely in some parts of northwest, southern peninsula and northeastern regions.

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