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India could receive over 100 per cent of the normal rainfall in July, IMD Director-General M Mohapatra said on Friday. However, some parts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Assam, Punjab, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu may experience deficient rainfall, he said.
Mohapatra said El Nino, a warm sea surface water phenomenon that affects rains during the Indian monsoon, is likely to emerge in July as the three months average sea surface temperature (SST) is predicted to be 0.81 degree celsius during May-June-July. This has been raised from 0.47 degree celsius during April-May-June period. The long period average (LPA) rainfall for July is 280.4 mm, the highest monthly rainfall in the season.
The over 100 per cent of LPA rainfall will likely make up for the 10 per cent deficient rainfall in June, the first month of the South-West monsoon, which makes up 76 per cent of the country’s annual rainfall. The country, as a whole, received 148.6 mm rainfall June against the long period average (LPA) of 165.3 mm, registering a deficit of 10 per cent. Except for the north-west region, all other regions have recorded deficient rainfall.
Shrinking deficit
There is a considerable improvement after the revival of monsoon as rainfall deficit was 31 per cent until June 23. IMD’s forecast predicted ‘below normal’ rainfall in June over most parts of the country. During June 1-30, the east and the north-east meteorological subdivision, comprising West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, and other NE States, have received 18 per cent deficit rainfall, but six States, including West Bengal, have received normal rainfall as per meteorological classification.
The North-west region has recorded 42 per cent surplus rainfall in which all States have got normal or excess rainfall. Only within Uttar Pradesh, the eastern region has got below normal rain in June.
Maharashtra, Odisha, and Goa in the Central region are deficient, whereas in total, the region has got 94 per cent of normal rainfall. Deficient by only 6 per cent. <NO>The south peninsula is 45 per cent deficient, but Tamil Nadu has reported 5 per cent surplus rainfall.<NO>Among the States in the south that have got deficient rainfall, Karnataka has received 53 per cent below-normal rainfall. Similarly, Telangana reported 50 per cent deficit rainfall and Andhra Pradesh 31 per cent.
Also read: Editorial. An evolving El Nino calls for caution
Also read: SBI’s monsoon impact index indicates better monsoon prospects
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