India received 108.5 mm in the first half (1-15) of this month, which is 14 per cent above the normal of 95.2 mm. It helped the overall seasonal rainfall, under the influence of the south-west monsoon, to reach at 108 per cent of its long period average (LPA) between June 1 and September 15.
In June, the rainfall was 11 per cent deficient, while it was 9 per cent surplus and 16 per cent surplus in August. India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted rainfall across the country to be ‘above normal” (more than 109 per cent of LPA) in September.
The seasonal rainfall since June 1 has been recorded at 857.5 mm until September 15, which is 7.7 per cent above its LPA of 795.9 mm.
200 cm rainfall?
The progress of the monsoon in the first half of September and the prediction for the whole month may seen around 200 cm of rainfall against the normal 167.9 mm for the month, a senior scientist with IMD said.
Latest data show that the east and northeastern meteorological subdivision comprising West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand and north-eastern states received 98.1 mm of rain in the first fortnight of this month, which is 34.3 per cent lower than its LPA of 149.4 mm. The north-west subdivision, comprising Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir, reported 95.2 mm rainfall, which is 40.8 per cent more than its normal 67.6 mm for the September 1-15 period.
Central India, comprising Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, and Goa, received 134.7 mm of rainfall, which is 26.6 per cent more than the LPA of 106.4 mm. But, the south peninsula comprising Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana got 93 mm rainfall in current month (1-15), which is 23.5 per cent above normal of 75.3 mm.
Threat from excess showers
Meanwhile, IMD said the western end of the monsoon trough is north of its normal position and the eastern end is near its normal position. The monsoon trough at mean sea level now passes through Amritsar, Rohtak, Shahjahanpur, Lucknow, Daltonganj. It has predicted “heavy to very heavy” rainfall (≥12 cm) at isolated places over Uttar Pradesh, east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and “heavy” rainfall (≥7 cm) at isolated places over Uttarakhand, west Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Odisha on Tuesday.
The weather bureau has also forecast “heavy” rainfall at isolated places over Uttarakhand, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, west Uttar Pradesh, east Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Tripura and Mizoram on September 18.
According to a report by Barclays, authored by Shreya Sodhani, regional economist, monsoon rainfall surplus over the past week remained concentrated in States already facing excess rainfall (Rajasthan, parts of central region, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana).
The report, quoting Agriculture Ministry, stated that crop damage from excess rainfall could be low in the range of 2-4 per cent of overall production. However, the crop loss in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana could be significantly higher and the Ministry currently in the process of assessing the impact in these and other States (including Maharashtra).