The wheat crop may come under threat from the predictions of higher temperatures before harvest. A likely above-normal temperature in February-March will likely lower the yield depending on the resistance capacity of each variety and the exact increase from the normal level.

Initial data suggest a rise in the maximum temperature from the normal level is likely next month in North India’s wheat-growing States of Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh, sources said. However, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) will issue the forecast for February after a week, wherein the details about the expected increase from normal level may be mentioned, the sources said.

Nothing conclusive

Currently, the highest maximum temperature in Punjab is 12.2 °C, in Haryana 18 °C and in Uttar Pradesh 22.6 °C. While the average maximum temperature in Punjab on Monday was 7.7 °C below normal, it was 5.3 °C less than normal in Haryana and 5 °C to 9 °C lower than average in western Uttar Pradesh, IMD data show.

Agriculture scientists said the precision level of prediction of IMD’s temperature and rainfall is up to five days and nothing can be concluded at this stage. “Any impact of higher temperature will depend on at which stage the crop is and to what extent the rise is. Besides, up to 3°C higher temperature for up to five days will not have an impact even in March if the night temperature remains cool,” said Gyanendra Singh, Director of Karnal-based Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research (IIWBR) under Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR). It is too early to take any view, he said.

In 2022, a rise in temperature in February-March shrivelled the grain in Haryana, Punjab and Madhya Pradesh, which lowered the yield.

No impact on early sown

According to Singh, the wheat crop that was planted during the normal sowing window of up to November 25 may see “heading” coming up in a week if there is clear weather, otherwise, there could be 3-5 days of delay. Currently, many parts of north-west India are experiencing fog and less sunshine during the day.

Stressing that the early sown crop will not have any impact even if there is a rise in temperature in February, but an increase in March can adversely impact late-sown varieties, Singh said the yield also depends on the varieties as the area under climate-resilient varieties of wheat has been rising every year. The Agriculture Ministry estimates 60 per cent of wheat area has been covered this year with such varieties.

Wheat acreage has reached at 340.08 lakh hectares (lh) as of January 19, compared with 337.5 lh in the year-ago period. Uttar Pradesh has reported the sowing area of the key winter cereal at 102.29 lh against 97.46 lh year-ago, up by 5 per cent. The acreage in Punjab and Haryana is almost at par with the year-ago period.