India’s cotton output for the new season 2021-22 is expected to be 360.13 lakh bales (each of 170 kg), which is marginal 2 per cent increase over 353 lakh bales estimated for the season that ended September 30, 2021. The estimate comes even as cotton prices are at the record levels of ₹64,500 per candy (for 29mm ginned variety) and ₹8,800 for a quintal of raw cotton.

Trade body Cotton Association of India (CAI) on Saturday released the preliminary first estimates for cotton crop for the new season that began on October 1, 2021, after its Crop Committee met on Friday.

Based on the data available from various trade sources, upcountry associations and other stakeholders, the Committee has estimated cotton consumption at 335 lakh bales for the new season, same as last year. Also, imports are estimated to be at the same levels of last year (10 lakh bales).

However, cotton exports, which hit a record in 2020-21 at about 78 lakh bales, are expected to come down by 38 per cent to 48 lakh bales. This dip is likely to because of the record high prices of the fibre.

The cotton season (October 1, 2021 to September 30, 2022) would end with a surplus stock of about 62.13 lakh bales, which is lower by 17 per cent from the closing stock of 75 lakh bales estimated for the last year.

The Crop Committee of the CAI will re-assess the crop as the season progresses, the trade body said in a statement.

Gujarat’s output increases

Cotton output in the largest grower Gujarat is expected at 96.99 lakh bales, up 6 per cent from 91.5 lakh bales estimated for last year. Cotton output in Maharashtra and Telangana is expected to be 86.46 lakh and 45.91 lakh bales respectively, which is an increase from 81 lakh bales and 44 lakh bales respectively in the last year.

A sharp dip in cotton output is expected in Haryana and Rajasthan at 16.60 lakh bales and 26.67 lakh bales respectively, which is lower by 26 per cent and 18 per cent respectively over last year. The output in Punjab is expected to be stable at about 10 lakh bales. For the northern region, cotton crop is expected to be lower by 18.5 per cent to 53.34 lakh bales as against 65.5 lakh bales.

In southern region, cotton output is expected at around 95.76 lakh bales, as against 91.5 lakh bales estimated for last year. Barring Andhra Pradesh, all cotton growing states in South India including Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Telangana will have a higher cotton crop. Estimates indicate Andhra Pradesh to have a dip of about 10 per cent in cotton crop at 14.3 lakh bales as against 16 lakh bales last year.

In Central Zone, besides Gujarat and Maharashtra, cotton output in Madhya Pradesh is also expected to increase by about 10 per cent over last year to 20.5 lakh bales from 18.5 lakh bales.

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