The rainfall in the first half of July, the wettest month of the June-September monsoon season, was 9 per cent above normal against 39 per cent surplus recorded during July 1-7, pointing to a large deficit in the second week of this month. The predicted revival of monsoon this week by India Meteorological Department (IMD) is crucial as it may help recover the shortfall.
There was 15 per cent deficit rainfall in the past week said an IMD source. Except in the south, monsoon rainfall drastically dropped in all other meteorological subdivisions last week, from the previous week, he said.
IMD has said that a low-pressure area formed on Monday morning off the South Odisha coast over the Bay of Bengal. This will likely be followed up by another ‘low’ over the next five days (by Friday), lending a sudden but expected boost to the monsoon as it enters the second half of July.
Surplus rainfall during the first week of July helped the country to recover from an 11 per cent deficiency in June. Sowing activities also got a push, with acreage under all Kharif crops exceeding half of the season’s normal area.
However, the latest IMD data showed that the country received 140.5 mm rainfall from July 1-15, as against 128.9 mm considered normal for the period. Among all regions, the east and northwestern meteorological subdivision comprising West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand and North-Eastern states received the maximum 322.2 mm of rains in the first fortnight, which is 52.1 per cent more than its long-period average (LPA) of 211.8 mm.
The north-west subdivision, comprising Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir, has reported 106.3 mm rainfall, which is 17.3 per cent more than its normal 90.6 mm for the July 1-15 period.
Central India, comprising Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, and Goa, has reported 153.9 mm of rainfall, which is 6.4 per cent above its LPA of 144.7 mm. Similarly, the south peninsula comprising Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana has reported 104.6 mm rainfall in July 1-15, which is 10.9 per cent above normal of 94.3 mm.
The country received 287.7 mm of rain between June 1 and July 15 in the current monsoon season, which is 2.2 per cent below its LPA of 294.2 mm.
Out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions, deficient rainfall has been reported from 11 such divisions, representing 31 per cent of India’s geographical area. Among the major states, Kerala, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, and Jharkhand continue to be in the “below normal” category in terms of precipitation, as was the case until July 7. But, Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir have now become deficient.
The southwest monsoon covered the entire country on July 2, six days ahead of schedule. IMD has predicted “above normal” rainfall this month, except in some areas in the northeastern region. July is the key period where maximum sowing takes place.