Sowing of wheat, a key rabi season cereal, is lower by 15.5 per cent at 41.3 lakh hectares (lh) as of November 8 against 48.87 lh a year ago.

As the government has fixed the production target at 114 million tonnes (mt) from a likely acreage of 336.23 lh, timely sowing is crucial to avoid any damage to the crop in case there is temperature rise during February-March.

“Sowing has just started and we hope maximum area in the north will be covered by end of this month,” said Ratan Tiwari, Director of Karnal-based Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research. The normal (last five years’ average) acreage under wheat is 312 lh.

According to preliminary data collated from the States, the wheat acreage in one of the major producing States - Madhya Pradesh - has shown a decline. Wheat sowing in Madhya Pradesh was 10.56 lh as of November 8 against 26.58 lh a year ago. Officials have reported a delay in updating data from Madhya Pradesh.

Down in Rajasthan

On the other hand, Uttar Pradesh — which has set a target to cover 101.12 lh this year — has reported higher acreage at 9.36 lh against 9.31 lh a year ago, Punjab 14.13 lh (8.31 lh) and Haryana 3.62 lh against 1.12 lh year-ago. But, Rajasthan reported wheat acreage a tad lower at 1.92 lh until November 8 from 2.06 lh a year ago.

Official sources said the acreage in Haryana continues to be higher and crossed 5 lh as of November 12, while in Rajasthan it has crossed 3 lh, nearly at par with the year-ago period.

The Centre has set the wheat production target at 115 million tonnes (mt) for 2024-25 and a higher acreage can boost chances of achieving the target amid prediction of a normal winter. India’s wheat production has been estimated by the government at record 113.29 mt for 2023-24.

Weekly sowing data

“The government is likely to start releasing the weekly update on sowing of rabi crops as it is expected to be higher,” an official source said.

As reported by businessline earlier, wheat prices in the country, particularly in the South, are ruling near a record ₹34,000 a tonne for railway goods shed delivery. This has resulted in flour mills seeking re-launch of the open market sale scheme (OMSS) for this fiscal or permitting imports at a lower duty.

“Wheat is not available in Rajasthan or Madhya Pradesh or Haryana or Punjab. It is available only in Uttar Pradesh. This has pushed up the prices. In Delhi, wheat is available at ₹3,200 a quintal,” an industry source had said.

Tight supply-demand

“The supply-demand situation is tight. Wheat is available only through private stockists,” said Delhi-based exporter Rajesh Paharia Jain.

The trade, in particular, is pointing to the Government not resuming OMSS this fiscal and the Food Ministry ruling out the need for imports as reasons for the spike in wheat prices.

According to data from Agmarket, a unit of the Ministry of Agriculture, the weighted average price of wheat currently is ₹2,811 a quintal at agricultural produce marketing committee (APMC) yards. The government has announced the minimum support price (MSP) for next year’s crop at ₹2,425/quintal to encourage farmers to expand the acreage.

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