India will export a record 10 million tonnes (mt) of wheat during the current fiscal, but its rice shipments could be lower this calendar year and corn (maize) sales abroad might also dip during the season to September, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has said. 

In the “Grain: World Markets and Trade” report brought out by its Foreign Agricultural Service, the USDA said India’s wheat exports this fiscal would be 10 mt against last fiscal’s 3.58 mt. In the case of rice, exports would be 20.5 mt against 21.19 mt last calendar year. 

Corn shipments would be lower for the current marketing season (October 2021-September 2022) at 2.8 mt against 3.67 mt last season. However, the USDA has raised the export estimates for rice and corn by 0.5 mt and 0.3 mt, respectively, in the current outlook compared with last month in view of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine that has stalled shipments from the Black Sea region. 

‘Demand accelerating’

The USDA said it had raised its wheat exports forecast for India by 3.0 mt in view of demand accelerating after the Russian troops entered Ukraine. “In the new marketing year 2022-23 beginning in April, fresh supplies will be available in addition to the exceptionally large stocks in the country,” it said. 

While New Delhi tended to supply wheat to neighbouring countries such as Bangladesh besides West Asia, India would find buyers across Africa and other parts of the Gulf region. The transit time to West Asia will be longer compared to Black Sea exporters “but India is well-positioned to step in as a low-cost supplier,” the USDA said. 

Apr-Jan growth 387 per cent

Between July 2021 and January 2022, India exported 5.2 mt, primarily to Bangladesh. Exports since October have averaged over 0.9 mt a month and India is expected to maintain this pace, the report said. 

A Commerce Ministry statement on Monday said the value of wheat exports had grown 387 per cent during the April-January period of the current fiscal to $1.74 billion against $358 million in the year-ago period. 

Data from the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) showed that during April-December of the current fiscal the volume of wheat shipments had increased to 5.04 mt against 1.07 mt in the year-ago period. 

‘Attractive’ pricing

“Notwithstanding the conflict in Ukraine, tightening global supplies and high prices from major exporters have made Indian wheat competitive for the first time in several years. After five consecutive record crops and rising government wheat inventories, India has ample exportable supplies,” it said.

The US agency said Indian wheat export prices averaged an “attractive $312/tonne” in January and enjoyed the advantage of low freight rates to markets in West and South Asia. 

Currently, while Indian wheat export prices are hovering around $350, prices of the grain from the US, Argentina and Europe are all quoted above $425. Interestingly, the last time when India shipped a record volume of wheat Russia and Ukraine faced supply shortage as their crop was hit by drought.

US also benefits

According to ING Think, the economic and financial analysis wing of Dutch multinational financial services firm ING, Russia and Ukraine would have been the top and third-largest exporters of wheat this year. 

The Russian-Ukraine standoff has also benefited the US as its bidding prices for its wheat have increased sharply between $160 and $190 a tonne. The USDA said it had raised its projections for Indian rice exports by 0.5 mt this month in view of “very large crop, high stocks and competitive prices”. It pegged India’s production at 129 mt compared with 124.37 mt last year.

Record rice, corn output

According to the Union Ministry for Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare, rice production this crop year to June is estimated at a record high of 127.93 mt. As of February 1, the Food Corporation of India had 26.33 mt of rice and 49.26 mt of paddy (31.35 mt of rice) compared with 24.36 mt of rice and 34.5 mt of paddy (22 mt of rice) in the year-ago period.  

On Monday, the Commerce Ministry said rice exports during the first 10 months of the fiscal fetched $7.7 billion (up 13 per cent). APEDA data for April-December showed rice exports were 12.53 mt against 8.25 mt a year-ago.

India’s record corn crop has also led to the USDA raising its projection of the cereal’s export to 2.8 mt from 2.5 mt a month ago for the current season to September. The US agency has projected India’s corn crop this crop year to June at 32.5 mt compared with 31.65 last crop year. 

The Agriculture Ministry has estimated the cereal’s production at 32.42 mt. APEDA April-December statistics showed export of other cereals, which includes corn as the major item, increased to 2.74 mt valued at $747 million against 1.97 mt valued at $434 million. 

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