The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) has forecast an output of 25 million tonnes (mt) for 2012-13 season starting October.
This is one million tonne lower than the 26 mt projected by the industry body for the current year.
The lower forecast, despite higher cane acreage, is mainly on account of inadequate rains impacting yields and recovery in the key States of Maharashtra and Karnataka.
The Agriculture Ministry data indicate that sugarcane has been planted in 52.22 lakh hectares (lh) in the 2012-13 season, about 2.30 lh more than previous year’s 49.92 lh.
“It is slightly early to make a good estimation of sugar production since the rainfall in the next couple of months would be crucial to firm up estimates on the yield, recovery and sugar production,” ISMA said in a statement.
Of the projected 25 mt for 2012-13, Uttar Pradesh is likely to produce 7.8 mt and Maharashtra 7.6 mt. Karnataka may produce 3 mt and Tamil Nadu 2.5 mt. States such as Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh are expected to produce 1 mt each and the balance by other States.
ISMA felt yields and recovery in Northern States may be slightly better, whereas monsoon in next few months in Maharashtra and Karnataka could result in better output. It expects to review its forecast after the end of monsoon.
The actual sugar production in the current 2011-12 season, up to end June-2012, stood at 25.7 mt. ISMA, sticking to its forecast of 26 mt, expects a production of another 3 lakh tonne in the next three months, mainly in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
The sugar body expects the exports to touch 3.5 mt by end-September and that the country will have a comfortable opening balance for 2012-13. It expects the county to remain a net exporter of sugar next year too.