The Indian Sugar Mills and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), the apex trade body for the sector, has projected sugar output for the 2024-25 season starting October at 331.1 lakh tonnes (lt). The estimates are a tad lower than the previous year’s output of 339.95 lt on a decline in production in States such as Maharashtra and Karnataka, where the sugarcane acreage is seen lower than last year.

However, excess stocks will be sufficient to support both the unhindered Ethanol Blending programme in the 2024-25 season and also exports in the current season leading to a balanced sugar market, ISMA said in a statement.

ISMA announced a promising outlook for the 2024-25 season with total sugarcane acreage estimated at 56.1 lakh hectares (lh) based on the satellite images obtained in late June 2024. The acreage is about six per cent lower than 59.44 lh a year ago.

Lower diversion

In Uttar Pradesh, the cane area is estimated to be down 3 per cent at 23.32 lh from 24.15 lh a year ago. However, the sugar output is seen higher at 113 lt over 109.76 lt last year on the likelihood of lower diversion of cane towards jaggery and khandsari units.

In Maharashtra, the cane area is seen lower by 13 per cent at 13.10 lh over 14.98 lh a year ago. Sugar output in Maharashtra for 2024-25 season is estimated lower at 111.02 lt (117.18 lt). Similarly, in Karnataka the cane acreage is down 8 per cent at 6.20 lh (6.75 lh). Sugar output in Karnataka is projected lower at 56.51 lt during 2024-25 from the previous year’s 58.24 lt.

The reduction in Maharashtra and Karnataka is primarily due to last year’s deficient rainfall in major cane-growing districts. However, the current year’s rainfall has been abundant, approximately 30 per cent above normal, with a positive forecast for the remainder of the monsoon. This improved water availability is anticipated to significantly enhance cane productivity and sugar recovery, effectively mitigating the impact of the reduced cane area. As a result, only a minimal decline of 3-5 per cent in gross sugar production is expected in these States.

In Tamil Nadu, the sugarcane area is down 19 per cent at 2 lh (2.48 lh) and sugar output is seen lower at 8.84 lt (12.31 lt). In Gujarat, the cane area is seen 4 per cent higher at 2.31 lh (2.22 lh) and output is expected to be higher at 9.98 lt (9.20 lt).

Optimistic outlook

Overall, the projections for the 2024-25 sugar season are significantly more optimistic than those forecasted a few months ago. ISMA is confident that the upcoming sugar season will be productive and successful.

Per the projected sugar balance for the 2024-25 sugar season, the opening stocks as of October 1, 2024, are estimated to be 90.5 lt. The gross production of sugar during the 2024-25 season without diversion for ethanol is estimated at 333 lt.

The total availability during the year would be 423.5 lt with domestic consumption estimated at 290 lt. The closing stock, as on September 30, 2025, is projected at 133.5 lt. Excluding the normative stocks of 55 lt, the excess stocks over and above the normative stocks are pegged at 78.5 lt, ISMA said. These estimates assume normal rainfall and other optimum conditions during the remaining period.

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