A near-stagnant but intensified form of low-pressure area over North-East Rajasthan and adjoining areas of North-West Madhya Pradesh and South-West Uttar Pradesh is bringing some very heavy rain to the desert State.
The 24 hours ending Friday morning saw heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy falls over East Rajasthan; it was heavy over West Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh, East Gujarat, Assam, Meghalaya and Coastal Karnataka.
Rain surplus grows
Rainfall figures for the country as a whole is in surplus to the extent of two per cent, with nine Met sub-divisions across Western and contiguous North and South India, including Gujarat and Saurashtra, recording individual surpluses.
The trend might largely hold for the rest of the month at least in the North, with the India Met Department (IMD) suspecting that a fresh low-pressure area might develop over West-Central and adjoining North-West Bay of Bengal sooner than later.
The system might get a move in a West-North-West direction into land and is expected to further enhance rainfall over East and Central India during August 23 -29.
So, the rains might last virtually into the end of the month (August, normally the second rainiest) for East and Central India, also bringing along with the threat for flooding/landslides at vulnerable locations.
Slow-moving ‘low’
On Friday, the IMD said that widespread rainfall and very heavy and extremely heavy falls may lash West Rajasthan until Saturday morning, while it would be heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy falls over East Rajasthan.
The causative well-marked ‘low’ is very slow with its lateral movement, which could translate into heavy downpour for the area under its footprint, and is now expected to weaken only by Monday.
Ahead of this, a productive interaction between by the monsoon system, led upfront by the well-marked ‘low’ and an incoming western disturbance, would bring the rest of North-West India under a heavy wet spell on Saturday and Sunday.
Interaction between a western disturbance and the monsoon system is considered a blessing when the monsoon is not as benevolent, but it currently threatens to flood some of the affected areas.
System interaction soon
The equally slow-moving disturbance, itself a band of low pressure located over Pakistan on Friday, would trigger heavy rain over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi.
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is forecast for Bengal, Sikkim, Assam and Meghalaya as the disturbance continues to track to the East over next two to three days, the IMD
The intensified (well-marked) ‘low’ is embedded into the trough makes the latter more potent, capable of generating above-normal rainfall and provides for potent combination that drives up rainfall many times