Latest forecast about a ‘strong possibility’ of an emerging El Nino weather pattern may go to compound worries over the ongoing Indian monsoon.
“The chances are now high that the El Nino will emerge in the summer,” the Japan Meteorological Agency said in a statement on Tuesday.
IMPACT LIKELY
An El Nino, in which the east Pacific warms up relative to the west, is generally known to suppress cloud-building and precipitation over India.
No one-to-one link may exist between the two, but an Indian monsoon has generally withered in the face of an El Nino, though with exceptions.
Back home, a rain-generating weather system over northwest Madhya Pradesh strengthened overnight to push monsoon into Rajasthan.
This will help the monsoon to bring the entire landmass under coverage by Wednesday, four days ahead of the July 15 normal timeline.
HEAVY RAINS
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast heavy rainfall over west Madhya Pradesh, east Rajasthan, Gujarat, Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep during the next two days.
But the spell would start weakening hence, with northwest and adjoining central India along with most parts of peninsula likely to go into a lull.
An extended IMD outlook valid until Tuesday next said that thundershowers would occur at many places over west coast and the North-eastern States.
Heavy rains may also materialise over the western Himalayan region, Indo-Gangetic plains, parts of east India and at a few places over central India.
OVERALL DEFICIT
Rains may show an increasingly tendency to concentrate more to the regions adjoining the foot hills of the Himalayas over these regions.
The spell over the west coast may also reduce in terms of intensity, according to the IMD forecast. This is more or less in line with global model forecasts.
The overall rain deficit for the country as a whole is unchanged at 25 per cent as of Monday.
The northwest continued to be the worst hit with -42 per cent, followed by south peninsula (-30 per cent); central India (-25 per cent); and east and northeast India (-13 per cent).