Japanese agency sees weak El Nino recurring this year

The latter half of 2017 might just see a recurrence of weak El Nino conditions in the Equatorial Pacific, according to latest predictions by a Japanese weather forecasting agency.

The Application Laboratory of the Japanese national forecaster Jamstec has qualified its outlook by suggesting an Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event could also be in the making around the same time.

This could be welcome bit of news for monsoon watchers in India since a positive IOD in its backyard could neutralise the bad effect of a weak El Nino far away in the Pacific.

During a positive IOD phase, the western parts of the Indian Ocean get warmed up, helping clouds to mass up over here and adjoining South-East Arabian Sea (off Kerala).

This would have the effect of strengthening the monsoon current that flows across the Arabian Sea from East Africa towards Sri Lanka and Kerala.

In fact, some leading international forecasters had earlier released their outlook on a reasonably good build-up to the South-West monsoon later this year.

Predictions from the Application Laboratory at Jamstec tended to largely support this outlook, though with some regional variations.

As for February, the agency saw heavy rains for Sri Lanka, some of which will get propagated to most parts of India’s southern peninsula (states of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala).

Excess rain is also indicated for Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand, while it will be normal for the rest of the country except the North-Eastern States and North Gujarat.

March is likely to turn out drier for most of the Eastern Coast covering Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh as also for Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand in the North-West.

April may prove wetter for most parts of the country except Coastal Karnataka and adjoining North Kerala. The country’s eastern half may witness normal to above normal rain during April.

Meanwhile, North-West India is currently witnessing rain, snowfall and rain followed by a cold wave as western disturbances, principal weather-makers during winter, moved across the region.

One such system had triggered widespread rainfall/snowfall in the hills January 6-8 and isolated to scattered rainfall over adjoining plains.

Once it moved away, seasonal cold and winds from the Arctic filled the region, which was responsible for bringing down mercury and setting off a cold wave.

Cold wave to severe cold wave conditions occurred at isolated places over the plains of North-West and adjoining central India from January 10-13.

This phase will now be broken by a fresh western disturbance, bringing the hills under snow and rainfall here as well as in the plains. Thus, the cold wave will abate from the region.