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The first monsoon-month of June ended with a rain deficit of 33 per cent with as many as 30 Met subdivisions in the red, five in the ‘normal’ rainfall category, and just one — Andaman & Nicobar Islands — recording a surplus.
The deficit had at one point of time threatened to breach the seven-year record of 42 per cent of June 2014. An intervening revival in fortunes prevented this from happening, but resultant rains were confined to northern parts of the West Coast.
Fresh ‘low’ forms
On Sunday, the monsoon earned a fresh lease of life with an anticipated low-pressure area taking shape. India Met Department (IMD) expects it to intensify as a depression over the next two days. This would pave the way for the rains to advance into the remaining parts of Central India, some more parts of West India and some parts of East Rajasthan during July 1 to 3, delayed by a week or to 10 days.
The monsoon may check into the remaining parts of East Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, many parts of West Uttar Pradesh and some parts of Himachal Pradesh during Tuesday-Thursday.
The ‘low’ is forecast to track west from Odisha, triggering widespread heavy to very heavy and extremely heavy rainfalls over Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Vidarbha and East Madhya Pradesh during the next three days.
Enhanced rainfall is also forecast over Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, East Gujarat, East Rajasthan and West Madhya Pradesh during the next three to four days.
South in deficit
Normally, the monsoon should cover the extreme North-West Met subdivision of West Rajasthan by July 1, signalling a complete run across the landscape that started from Kerala on June 8.
The Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Service said that robust cross-equatorial flows from the seas south of Maldives and Sri Lanka are helping with the northward advancement of the monsoon.
While model forecasts depict above-average precipitation over Central India for the ongoing week (June 26 to July 2), below-average rainfall is favoured to continue across parts of South India, which are already in the red.
A helpful Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave may re-emerge over the Indian Ocean towards the end of next week (July 2 to 9). This could bring enhanced rainfall over North India, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts said.
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