A consecutive deficient monsoon is likely to take its toll on Kharif crop production, according to the first advance estimates released by the Agriculture Ministry here on Wednesday.

While almost all the crop segments – foodgrain, coarse cereals, pulses and oilseeds – are likely to miss their targets, output estimates for most major crops appear to be marginally different from the first advance estimates for the Kharif season of the 2014-15 crop year (July-June) that was also hit by a poor monsoon.

Total foodgrain production, including rice, coarse cereals and pulses, is likely to touch 124.05 million tonnes (mt) this Kharif, 1.78 per cent lower than last year’s final estimate of 126.31 mt. However, the early estimate this kharif is higher than last year’s early estimate of 120.27 mt – a 3.14 per cent increase.

Rice production is pegged at 90.61 mt compared to 88.02 mt last year but lower than the target of 106.1 mt. Total production of coarse cereals such as jowar, bajra and ragi is expected at 27.88 mt, slightly higher than the first estimate of 27.05 mt in 2014-15.

Kharif maize production is expected to be 3.2 per cent lower at 15.51 mt.

Output of kharif pulses such as arhar, moong and urad are seen at 2.61 mt, 0.86 mt and 1.37 mt. While the estimates for urad and moong are expected to be slightly higher than the previous year’s early estimates of 1.15 mt and 0.71 mt, it is lower for arhar that was expected at 2.74 mt last year.

Oilseeds buck the trend Total output for the oilseeds complex is pegged at 198.90 lakh tonnes (lt), about 1.1 per cent higher than the 1st estimate in 2014-15 of 196.64 lt. Soyabean production is expected at 118.32 lt, slightly higher than last year, while output of groundnut – despite 3 per cent lower acreage compared to last year – is estimated at 51.07 lt, higher than the 50.24 lt expected last year.

Cash crops wilt Cotton production is likely to slide by 3.2 per cent to 335.07 lakh bales (of 170 kg each) in 2015-16, compared to the early estimate of 346.23 lakh bales last year. Cotton acreage is lower by 8.4 per cent this Kharif as of September 11.

Jute and mesta output is also expected to decline by nearly 5 per cent in 2015-16 to 108 lakh bales (of 180 kg each).

Yields impacted “This is the second consecutive year of a poor monsoon and irrigation coverage needs to be increased. The rural population will always be at risk from droughts in rain-fed areas. So while rice output may remain steady, for others yields will be impacted by less rainfall and moisture in the soil,” said DK Joshi, Senior Director and Chief Economist, Crisil.

Around 96 per cent of sowing has been completed even as the country recorded a 16 per cent rainfall deficit between June 1 and September 16. Severely stressed mainly rain-fed areas include Marathwada, central Maharashtra, eastern Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Gujarat. A monsoon resurgence this month in the southern peninsula has brought some relief in regions like north interior and coastal Karnataka and parts of Andhra Pradesh.

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