The highly erratic monsoon and its obscure spread may reduce foodgrain output in the ongoing kharif season to 136.75 million tonnes (mt) — nearly 2.83 per cent lower than the 140.73 mt produced in 2017-18, post-harvest management services company National Collateral Management Services Ltd (NCML) said on Thursday.
This is the second advanced estimate for the 2018-19 kharif crop production released by NCML.
It is about 1 million tonnes lower than the previous estimate of 137.733 mt released in July, the company said in a statement.
Rice output down
Production of rice, the major kharif crop, is projected to decline to 95.8 mt against the record production of 97.50 mt in the previous year, as seen by the 4th advance estimates of the Agriculture Ministry.
The new estimate is marginally lower than NCML’s earlier estimate of 96.8 mt, it said, and attributed the decline to erratic rainfall during the flowering period leading to a lower yield.
Weather vagaries
The drop in overall kharif production is on expected lines despite a pick-up in the monsoon in July and August.
While over 20 per cent of the country faced floods, half of the country’s 36 meteorological subdivisions are reeling under a rainfall deficit of over 10 per cent.
Oilseed production decline
The overall production of oilseeds in 2018-19 kharif too is projected to fall by 2 per cent to 20.56 mt (21 mt).
While soyabean output may register an uptick, there could be a 17 per cent dip in groundnut yield.
The production of pulses is likely to drop by 9.5 per cent to 8.45 mt in the current season on account of diminished yields of urad and tur.
Cash crops
Among other major kharif crops, maize output is projected to drop 5 per cent to 19.18 mt as many farmers shifted to other remunerative crops.
Besides, a few districts in Karnataka and Maharashtra, major growers of the crop, got less rains and saw pest infestation which may result in a 10-20 per cent yield loss.
According to NCML, there may be some good news on the cotton front with its yield projected to go up by 3 per cent to 35.9 million bales (of 170 kg each). Sugarcane yield, too, may edge up by 1.17 per cent to 381 mt. But this will only add to the woes of the sugar industry (and the government) currently reeling under the glut.