After having come down from record high prices last year, the prices of pulses could come under further pressure this year, thanks to hopes of a better kharif production.

But there is a caveat. The drop in prices will depend on the impact that the hike in diesel prices will make on the overall production costs of farmers.

The South-West monsoon has been well-spread this year, resulting in production of pulses rising by nearly 20 per cent.

Estimates made by various quarters put the production around 70 lakh tonnes compared with 59 lakh tonnes a year ago.

Kharif production accounts for 35 per cent of the annual pulses production in the country.

Tur, urad and moong are the major pulses grown in kharif season. Kharif pulses production hit a record 71.2 lakh tonnes in 2010-11.

The area under kharif pulses has increased substantially this year to 99.6 lakh hectares against 85.3 lakh hectares last year. But, it is lower than the normal area of 110 lakh hectares.

Pravin Dongre, Chairman, Indian Pulses and Grains Association, says that pulses coverage this year has been higher and expectations are that the output would touch 65 lakh tonnes-70 lakh tonnes, depending on the yield.

He also says when the final figures on sowing come out, the acreage could be above the normal coverage.

The National Collateral Management Services Ltd, which runs a commodity and risk management services, however, sees pulses production being hit by floods in some parts of the country, especially Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.

On the other side, pulses acreage has gained this year on account of the Government’s efforts to boost domestic production through higher minimum support prices.

The support price for tur has been raised to Rs 4,350 a quintal from Rs 3,850 last year.

In the last two years, the support prices have been raised by over 30 per cent for all pulses.

The pulses and grains body sees a record output for the whole year at 184.50 lakh tonnes against the previous one of 182.4 lakh tonnes in 2010-11.

The higher production could also result in lower imports of pulses. Indian is the highest producer, consumer and importer in the world.

“Imports could drop to 30 lakh tonnes this year. This will also be due to over 25 per cent drop in the rupee’s value since the beginning of this year,” says Dongre.

During 2012-13 fiscal, 32 lakh tonnes of pulses were imported with yellow peas making up 50 per cent.

“Unless prices drop in some origins, it is unlikely that imports will be higher,” says Dongre.

But there could some impact of the fall-out in the country, he says. “With expectation of higher output, prices may drift lower. Sadly for the farmers, the higher support price for pulses could remain only on paper,” says Dongre.

The efforts to woo farmers to grow pulses could be affected if the support prices is not ensured across the States,” he says.

A better way to handle the issue may be to bring pulses under the public distribution system, says the association.

Going by the association and trade views, a lower price for pulses could create trouble next year as growers could shift to alternative crops such as soyabean and cotton.

According to the National Collateral Management Services Ltd, production would be higher this kharif but the final outcome will depend on how the weather behaves until harvest.

>suresh.iyengar@thehindu.co.in

(This is the second part of the series on this year’s kharif crop)

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