Busan, Korea-based Asia Pacific Climate Centre (APCC) is the latest to forecast ‘near-normal to below normal’ rains for the rest of Indian monsoon this year.
Near normal to below normal rainfall is predicted from northeast Asia through India, West Asia and its northern regions, an APCC spokesman informed Business Line.
STAGNATING, FOR NOW
The Indian summer monsoon has been below normal already, with stagnation in the northward progression of its northern envelope.
The APCC multi-model ensemble forecasts show that the equatorial Pacific Ocean will continue to warm into early fall.
The maximum warming is seen in the eastern tropical Pacific, indicating that an El Nino is not unlikely, the forecast said.
Above normal warm conditions are predicted over most of the globe during the July-August-September season.
In particular, there is a strong chance that western Russia, northeast Asia, and the US may experience warmer than normal temperatures.
Below normal temperature is expected over northeastern and southeastern Pacific Ocean.
ERRATIC PHASE
Meanwhile, the erratic phase of the monsoon was in evidence on Monday with east India slipping under an expansive wet phase.
This has come at the expense of practically the entire rest of the country. Heavy to extremely heavy rain pulverised parts of east and northeast India overnight.
During the 24 hours ending this morning, Cherrapunji in Assam got nearly drowned by the 46 cm of rainfall recorded during the period.
Monsoon otherwise stood still over the mainland, taking its time to revive after the latest away-sea storm, ‘Talim’ in the South China Sea, undid its progress.
NOT IDEAL
Aiding the heavy falls in the east was a north-south trough running down from sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim to the North Bay of Bengal.
This formation is not considered helpful for the larger cause of the monsoon for the rest of India since entire moisture is getting offloaded in the area of the trough here.
In fact, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall to continue over Assam and Meghalaya for next two days.
Heavy rainfall has also been forecast at one or two places over Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and coastal Karnataka.