Conditions are favourable for the emergence of La Nina, a cold event that brings more rains to Asia particularly India, during August 2024-January 2025, the APEC Climate Centre (ACC) has said.
“The APCC ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) alert suggests ‘La Nina Watch’. Nino3.4 index is expected to be -0.6℃ for August 2024 and then gradually decrease to -0.7℃ and persist from September 2024 to January 2025,” it said in its seasonal outlook for August 2025-January 2025.
The Climate Prediction Center of the US, in its latest update, said ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue for the next several months, “with La Nina favoured to develop during August-October (70 per cent chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (79 per cent chance during November-January)”.
Australian outlook
According to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, La Nina will emerge once sea surface temperatures are below −0.8 °C. Last week, it said climate models suggest that SSTs in the central tropical Pacific will likely continue to cool for at least the next 2 months.
“From September, 4 of 7 climate models suggest SSTs are likely to remain at neutral ENSO levels, and the remaining 3 suggest the possibility of SSTs reaching La Nina levels (below −0.8 °C),” it said last week.
The good news from the prediction for India is that the region spanning central Africa to the Arabian Sea and South Asia, Indonesia, and the Caribbean Sea will receive above-normal rainfall.
Above-normal precipitation has also been forecast for the Arctic, Greenland, East Asia, the Indochinese Peninsula, and central and eastern Australian regions.
APCC also predicted a strong probability for above normal temperatures across most parts of the world except tropical and subtropical regions during the period. This is in tune with projections that 2024 could be the warmest if not one of the five warmest years on record.
El Nin impact
In its outlook, the National Centers for Environmental Information, an arm of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the US, has said there is “almost a 60 per cent chance” that 2024 will rank as the warmest year on record and “a 100 per cent chance” that it will rank in the top five.
La Nina should provide some relief as the world comes out of El Nino, which emerged in June 2023 and ended in April 2024. It resulted in global temperatures rising.
According to global agencies, temperatures across the world have been above average over the past 13 months with Africa, Asia and South America experiencing their warmest June on record in 2024.
In its assessment of global climate, NOAA said for the 15th consecutive month, SSTs were the warmest on record. The Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent and global sea ice extent were both below average. Global tropical cyclone activity was below average, with only two named storms, it said.