A low-pressure has materialised over south-east Bay of Bengal, but weather models suspect if it would be able to go the distance and spin up as a tropical cyclone.
By mid-day on Tuesday, super typhoon Nuri in the west Pacific peaked over and had wound down to a typhoon by mid-day in signs it was ceding space for the Bay to do its act.
On Tuesday, India Met Department put the ‘low’ under watch for intensification as a depression over the next two days but peer models are not sure if it can evolve any further. They cite a host of adverse factors impeding its development – the projected track, proximity to land, and back-to-back movement of opposing western disturbances.
Far off location First of all, erstwhile super typhoon Nuri had delayed the formation of the ‘low’ by at least three days. It sent dynamics of the Bay into disarray, forcing the ‘low’ to show up at much farther a place than anticipated.
Secondly, the projected track towards the Myanmar coast denies it the luxury of the elbow room to grow, despite sea-surface temperatures being just ideal.
Thirdly, the vertical wind shear (the sudden change in wind direction and speed with height) is already high over northeast Bay where the ‘low’ seems initially headed. The wind shear is projected to grow over the region, and threatens to interfere with the building of the storm tower.
Opposing westerlies Fourthly, there is a raft of incoming western disturbances which blow in from the opposite direction and which could decelerate the ‘low’/depression, even stop it on its track.
By all indications, the threat of a full-blown cyclone hovering over the east coast of India may have thus evaporated.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts sees a likely depression now headed towards north Andhra Pradesh-south Odisha coasts.
Projections by India Met tend to take the system towards the Chennai coast and neighbourhood later during the week.