Weather forecast. Low-pressure area becomes ‘well-marked’ over South-East Bay of Bengal

The low-pressure area over South-East Bay of Bengal and adjoining East Equatorial Indian Ocean has intensified as expected to become ‘well-marked’ over the same region on Sunday morning, an update from India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.

It is likely to move West-North-West and intensify into a depression by Monday after moving into the South-West Bay. The depression will have reached near the Sri Lanka coast by Wednesday, the IMD said. 

The Sri Lankan Met Department said the well-marked ‘low’ will intensify as a depression over the South-West Bay by Tuesday itself and move gradually West-North-West to reach the East Coast of Sri Lanka by Wednesday, but did not indicate a likely time and date of a landfall. 

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Shifting track over Lanka

Global models indicate the depression will cross the South-East coast of Lanka by Wednesday evening and will shift its track to the West-South-West and across the island nation into the open waters of the Equatorial Indian Ocean.

A visiting strong western disturbance over North-West India may deny a safe haven for the storm to land over the peninsular coast of South India.  

GFS model projections of expected movement of the brewing depression and rainfall cover (green and blue) over Sri Lanka over next couple of days. | Photo Credit: V Karthik

The Sri Lankan Met has predicted wind speeds between 40-45 kmph in speed on Sunday with gusts of 60 kmph in the sea areas East Equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining South-West Bay. Heavy showers or thundershowers and ‘rough to very rough seas’ (wave heights of 8-20 ft) may prevail here.

Naval and fishing communities are advised not to venture until Monday. 

Rough seas warned

Sea areas off the coast extending from Colombo to Kankasanthurai via Puttalam and Mannar and from Pottuvil to Matara via Hambanthota will be ‘fairly rough’ (8-13 ft) at times. The other sea areas around the island will be ‘slight’ (1-4 ft) in mode.

Temporarily strong gusty winds and ‘very rough’ (13-20 ft) seas are likely over these parts during thundershowers.

Back home, the IMD said that after the depression passes, a rain-friendly ‘easterly wave’ may set in over the Bay and continue to bring light to isolated to scattered rain over South Peninsular India and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands during many days of the first week of February.

Rainfall is likely to be above normal over South Peninsular India and below normal over elsewhere. 

Easterly wave to set in

The incoming western disturbance has left Iran and reached West Afghanistan on Sunday morning.

As in the case of the ve predecessor, the itinerant system too is seen feeding on oodles of moisture accompanying winds will sweep from the Arabian Sea to convert as rain or snow over the hills of North-West India (Western Himalayan Region) as also adjoining plains.

Rain, snow for North-West

Light to moderate to fairly widespread to widespread rain/snow is likely over the hills on Sunday and Monday while it will be light to moderate scattered to fairly widespread rain over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and West Uttar Pradesh.

It will be light/moderate to isolated to scattered over East Uttar Pradesh on both days and over Rajasthan and light over Delhi on Sunday.

Heavier rain/snow in isolated spells are forecast over the hills on Sunday and Monday. Isolated hailstorms may roll down the hills of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand as well as the plains of Punjab, Haryana and West Uttar Pradesh on both days and over Rajasthan on Sunday.

Strong surface winds (20-30 kmph in speed) may prevail over North-West India on Sunday and Monday.