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A low-pressure area (‘low’) has formed over the Bay of Bengal on Wednesday. India Meteorological Department (IMD) has straightaway put under watch for intensification twice over to a monsoon depression over the next two days.
RAIN OUTLOOK
It has retained its outlook for rainfall activity to increase over South Peninsular India and also over the east coast of the country from Sunday.
Rainfall activity would increase also over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the first port of call for the South-West monsoon, and adjoining sea areas.
US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) too agreed with IMD’s outlook, and locating the brewing weather system in the Bay of Bengal system 657 km east of Colombo, Sri Lanka.
The slightly easterly position is now expected to guide the storm towards Odisha/Gangetic West Bengal coast next week, if storm tracker projections are to be believed.
MAY WEAKEN
JTWC upgraded as ‘medium’ chances for its intensification, given deepening convection (cloud-building process) and better organisation.
Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated up to 46 km/hr, and the system was under favourable conditions for further development.
But it could slow down a bit and lose some strength on its approach to land since seas are cooler in North Bay of Bengal, compared to the ‘sizzling hot’ waters where it is currently located.
ARABIAN SEA STORM?
Overall, its current coordinates and projected path are more or less helpful for the onset of the South-West monsoon over the Andaman Islands over the next few days.
What is even more encouraging for the monsoon is forecast of another weather system brewing in the west-central Arabian Sea.
This is expected to happen 10-12 days from now, after the Bay storm blows over. This will also present a tricky situation in so far as its track for onward movement is concerned.
Early forecasts say it might just help precipitate the monsoon over Kerala, but the storm track was as yet not clear.
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