All is not well on the farm front. While kharif or summer crop production has been estimated seven per cent lower this season ending June, sowing in rabi or winter crops has been slack so far.
A 34 per cent deficient North-East Monsoon, that begins from October 1 and is the lifeline for States on the East Coast, and storage level in the 85 major reservoirs dropping below the 10-year average also portend ill for the economy.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the total area covered under rabi crops so far is 428.50 lakh hectares (lh) against 458.80 lh in the corresponding period a year ago. Rabi sowing starts around November after kharif crops are harvested during September-October.
Area under most crops is down as on December 5 with coverage of wheat trailing at 208.64 lh (213.69 lh).
Delay in harvesting sugarcane in Uttar Pradesh, where sugar mills began crushing late demanding that the State Government cane price be linked to sugar rates as suggested by the C Rangarajan Committee, has affected wheat sowing in the northern State.
Coverage of cereals is lower at 43.12 lh, down some three lh from last year.
A 12 per cent deficiency in the South-West Monsoon, which drenches major crop-growing areas in North, West and central parts of the country during June-September besides poor soil moisture is attributed to the lower area in cereals. In particular, rainfall deficiency in northern and western parts was 21 per cent. Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, the other major cereal growing States, have thus been affected.
If the trend continues, it could result in poor cereal production this year. Foodgrain production in the kharif season has been estimated nearly 10 million tonnes (mt) lower at 120.27 mt. While rice output has been projected three mt lower at 88.02 mt that of maize has been pegged at 16.03 mt (17.68 mt).
Lower foodgrain production can result in inflation surging since agricultural produce prices could rise. This could further result in the RBI delaying the much–awaited interest rates cut, expected early next year. Wholesale Price Index inflation dropped to a five-year low of 1.77 per cent in October.
The pulses crop also seems to be in trouble with sowing down by over 14 lh at 107.85 lh. Lower area under the main pulses rabi crop, gram or chana, is the main problem for the decline. For the kharif season, pulses production has been estimated at 5.20 mt against 6.02 mt a year ago.
The Government’s plans to contain fiscal deficit and inflation could face more hurdles in the form of lower storage in reservoirs and deficient North-East monsoon.
Storage levels dipStorage in the 85 major reservoirs, at 100.994 billion cubic metres (BCM) or 65 per cent of the capacity, is lower than the 10-year average of 102.524 BCM. Last year, the level at this point of time was 118.82 BCM of 77 per cent of capacity.
According to the India Meteorological Department, rainfall during the North-East monsoon is lower at 74.5 mm against the normal 121.1 mm. Barring southern States, all other states have received deficient rainfall since October to compound the shortfall during the South-West Monsoon.
Damage to cotton cropMeanwhile, 18,000 hectares in Amalner, Parola and Chopra tehsils of Maharashtra’s Jalgaon district have been affected by cotton wilt, according to information provided by the Commissionerate of Agriculture, Pune. The wilt is caused by a fungus, Minister of State for Agriculture Sanjeev Kumar Balyan said in the Rajya Sabha on Friday.