Outlook on the monsoon has not changed this morning, with expected revival likely to happen over the next couple of days.

It is bright and sunny here in Thiruvananthapuram, with patches of clouds hovering above. Winds are west-northwesterly, which is contra-indicative to active monsoon.

Kochi, 250 km along the coast to the north, is hazy but calm, with slightly elevated chances for rains towards the night. Probabilities for rains in Thiruvananthapuram become enhanced high from tomorrow.

These provide the nearest possible indicators for a revival of the monsoon, which is forecast to become dominant towards the week-end.

Otherwise, all other monsoonal indicators looked down over the mainland, with heightened activity in northeast India too tapering off.

The offshore trough along has also become less marked, and incipient in terms of its capacity to host any sustained monsoon flows.

But the offshore trough can suddenly becoming active with flows picking up, which is expected to happen over the next few days.

It is expected that a persisting cyclonic circulation in the west-central Bay of Bengal would become crucial for making an informed prediction on further progress of the monsoon.

>vinson.kurian@thehindu.co.in

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