Bay of Bengal cyclone Mahasen has started to reorganise by Sunday afternoon, after undergoing a bout of weakening earlier in the day.
Joint Typhoon Warning Centre of the US Navy said that the weakening was due to ingestion of dry air from hot surface of mainland India.
ARABIAN SEA
Mahasen lay centred 800 km south-east of Chennai and 1,400 km south-south-west of Chittagong (Bangladesh).
Cyclone Warning Centre of India Met Department expected it to initially move northwestwards and re-curve towards Bangladesh-Myanmar coast.
Meanwhile, a US-based storm tracker persisted with the forecast for Arabian Sea too to get into action.
This would happen after Mahasen makes a landfall and dies out.
The storm might evolve over East-central Arabian Sea over the next 10-to-12-day period.
The storm may spin away north-north-west for a likely landfall over Yemen/Oman.
But before doing that, it could trigger the onset of South-West monsoon over the Kerala coast.
ROGUE CYCLONES
In the past, rogue cyclones have drained moisture from the monsoon system, weakening it.
It would be some time before it reorganised by assuring itself of enough supplies to push rains to upcountry India.
Meanwhile, Cyclone Warning Centre said Mahasen could intensify after recurvature. But there was a large divergence in the forecasts.
A couple of models even suggested that Mahasen could stray into north eastern States of India.
In a weather warning, the Met Department said that heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur at one or two places over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the next two days.
HEAVY WEATHER
A prevailing western disturbance, which would eventually steer cyclone Mahasen towards Bangladesh/Myanmar, has called in at North Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir. Expected to move entirely into north-west India and further into East India, the system has induced the formation of a cyclonic circulation over Haryana.
The duo is expected to bring heavy and intermittently violent weather over both hills and plains of North-West India and adjoining East and North-East India.
Moisture being swept into East and North-East India could only further fuel the heavy weather.
Thunder squall has been warned across Jammu and Kashmir; Punjab; Rajasthan; Haryana; Delhi; West Uttar Pradesh; Bihar; Jharkhand; Chhattisgarh; Uttarakhand; Odisha, West Bengal; Sikkim, Assam; Meghalaya; Nagaland; Manipur; Mizoram; and Tripura during the next two days.