Cyclonic storm Mahasen over Southeast Bay of Bengal is now going through ‘the motion’ of orienting its path away from India’s coastline and towards Bangladesh in an east-northeast direction.
Best evidence of this came in this morning’s update from the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre, New Delhi.
The centre said that Mahasen travelled mostly in a northerly direction (from being west-northwest until now) last night.
This represents a ‘straightening out’ manoeuvre before executing the turn towards right, according to a seasoned storm watcher.
India Met Department located the cyclone about 950 km northwest of Car Nicobar; 700 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka); 600 km east of Chennai; and 1,200 km south-southwest of Chittagong (Bangladesh).
Mahasen would keep moving northwards for some more time and thereafter recurve towards Bangladesh-Myanmar coast.
According to the centre at New Delhi, most models suggested the northward movement during next few hours and then recurve.
DIVERGENT VIEW
But there was still large divergence in the forecast with respect to intensification of the system.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts persisted with its outlook for current intensity being retained till recurvature and weakening thereafter.
The Dynamical-statistical models of India Met Department too suggested retention of current intensity during the next 36 hours and then intensification during next 24 hours.
Joint Typhoon Warning Centre of the US Navy said that Mahasen was expected to slowly track north-northeast for next 12 hours.
Later, the system is expected to slowly accelerate and track northeast as it gradually intensifies under the influence of the western disturbance currently moving East across North India.
JTWC estimated Mahasen to peak to strength of 129 km/hr over the next 48 hours and keep cyclone strength until Friday just ahead of landfall over Bangladesh.