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Tropical cyclone Mahasen is at least two full days away from landfall over the Bangladesh coast and is expected to undergo one last round of intensification.
India Met Department retained watch for monsoon onset over Andaman Sea, churned up by Mahasen before leaving it to North, helping facilitate the likely onset in a couple of days.
Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre, Delhi, located Mahasen 800 km north-west of Port Blair; 460 km south-east of Visakhapatnam; 650 km south-south-west of Paradip; and 1,060 km south-west of Chittagong (Bangladesh) on Tuesday afternoon.
Headed to Bangladesh
It is expected to move north-eastwards and cross Bangladesh coast between Khepupara and Teknaff, close to Chittagong during Thursday evening/night, the forecasting centre said.
But it will retain cyclone strength until just ahead of landfall, it added.
Joint Typhoon Warning Centre of US Navy more or less agreed with the forecast outlook and estimated that the cyclone lurked approximately 972 km south-south-westward of Kolkata.
CHANGES TRACK
But the US agency said that the cyclone had been tracking in a north-east direction, putting itself on course for a landfall over Bangladesh.
It would remain on a general north-easterly track, the US agency added.
Favourable sea surface temperatures (29-30 degrees Celsius) along the track and improving upper level support will help to support a steady intensification through next two days.
But increasing track speeds and vertical wind shear (sudden change in wind direction with height) would catch up with Mahasen as it moves closer to landfall, weakening it.
HEAVY WEATHER
Meanwhile, cyclone Mahasen combined with a prevailing western disturbance over North-West ad East India to set up some volatile weather over many parts of the country.
The Met Department said in a warning that fishermen of Andaman and Nicobar Islands should not venture into the sea during the next two days.
Fishermen along north coastal Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh need to be careful while venturing into the sea along and off these coasts on Wednesday.
Thunder squall has been forecast over Odisha, West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura during next two days and over coastal Andhra Pradesh on Wednesday.
vinson.kurian@thehindu.co.in
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