Maize exports in the current season are expected to be lower by about a third over last year’s record high of 4.8 million tonnes on a lower crop and rising domestic demand.
Trade expects maize exports to be in the region of around 3-3.5 mt for the crop marketing year-ending August 2013.
“The lower output in the kharif season has already resulted in a decline in exports during the first half,” an official with a multinational exporting firm said. The latest export figures are not available.
Maize output in 2012-13 is pegged at around 21 mt on account of lower crop in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan due to erratic monsoons.
Last year, the country’s maize output stood at 21.57 mt.
Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra are the three top maize producing States accounting for half of the country’s output.
Karnataka accounts for about a fifth of maize harvest, followed by AP at 18 per cent and Maharashtra at 12 per cent.
Further, the trade believes that the maize has an export window only for the next two to three months till June-July after which the global supplies are expected to ease.
“The rabi maize crop in Bihar, which has been slightly delayed, looks higher by about 20 per cent. There is a potential to export till June-July. With easing global supplies from August and prices coming under pressure, as reflected in the Chicago futures, exports from India were likely to be unviable,” an official from another multinational exporter said.
Bihar accounts for about seven per cent of the country’s output of 21 mt. The Chicago corn prices have eased on better planting prospects in the US and Brazil.
Reports said corn planting in the US for 2013 is forecast to touch 97.75 million hectares, the highest in 77 years.
Corn contracts for May on Chicago Board of Trade are hovering around $7.26 a bushel.
September 2013 contracts are hovering around $5.97, reflecting an easing trend in prices.
India’s maize exports have more than doubled in the past few years from 1.9 mt in 2009-10 to 4.8 mt in 2011-12.
Maize is largely exported to the Far East nations, where it is used for livestock feed.