Weather forecast. ‘Mandous’ remnant may fail to make second cyclone by a whisker 

The remnant of the erstwhile Bay of Bengal cyclone ‘Mandous’ seems to be living a charmed life in the Arabian Sea, though far away from India’s West Coast to be of any consequence. On Thursday morning, it intensified into a deep depression and nearly churned a full circle to reach cyclone strength yet again, to elevate itself to an elite class of such weather systems.

But the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is of the view that the prevailing environment in the outer Arabian Sea may have put paid to its ambitions, and has since hinted that the remnant may have reached its peak strength as a deep depression, only a spin away from being declared a cyclone a second time. This ‘rebirth’ of cyclones in the Arabian Sea is rare but not totally ruled out.

Rare occurrence

On Thursday morning, the deep depression was located 580 km to the West-North-West of Amindivi (Lakshadweep); 630 km West-South-West of Panjim (Goa) and 1,550 km East-South-East of Salalah in Oman, towards where it is oriented now, a long way off from its origin in the South Andaman Sea and adjoining South-East Bay of Bengal more than a week ago.

The IMD said the current deep depression will continue to move to the West-North-West over the East-Central Arabian Sea, farther away from the Indian coast, and weaken gradually during the next two days. It will continue to be a threat to fishermen over the South-East Arabian Sea, East-Central Arabian Sea and West-Central Arabian Sea variously for the next couple of days. 

Fresh ‘low’ in Bay of Bengal

As hinted in these columns on Wednesday, a fresh low-pressure area has formed over South-East Bay and adjoining areas of the East Equatorial Indian Ocean (at the eastern end of a more or less straight line from Sri Lanka to Sumatra in Indonesia). It is forecast to move westwards in the opposite direction (towards Lanka) and become ‘well-marked.’ 

The IMD said this intensified form of the ‘low’ would continue to move westwards and maintain its intensity over South Bay till Saturday morning, by when it would have reached half way on its track towards Sri Lanka, with advance rain bands impacting its coast as well as of South Tamil Nadu. Fairly widespread rain with isolated heavy falls are likely over the Nicobar Islands on Thursday. 

Fishermen warning issued

Fairly widespread rain with isolated heavy falls will unfold over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal on Monday. Fishermen should not go out into the South Andaman Sea on Thursday; the South-East Bay till Friday; and South-West Bay on both Friday and Saturday. 

A numerical prediction model suggests light to moderate rain over the South Peninsula for the next 8-10 days from Saturday, with heavier rain along the Tamil Nadu coast as the well-marked ‘low’ comes home to roost over Sri Lanka. Interestingly, the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction indicates the heavier rain may spread to the South Andhra Pradesh coast as well.