Cyclonic storm ‘Mekunu’ has intensified another round to become a severe cyclonic storm, the strongest of the two to have visited the Arabian Sea during the past week or so. The severe cyclone was located about 270 km South-East of Socotra Islands and 670 km South-South-East of Salalah, Oman.

Further intensification

An India Met Department (IMD) forecast said it is on track to intensify further into a destructive very severe cyclone by tomorrow. It would move North-North-West and cross the South Oman - South-East Yemen coasts close to Salalah by Saturday morning.

'Mekunu' would remain anchored over the very warm waters of West Arabian Sea until Saturday when it would make the landfall. Models are watching if the extended window for stay of waters would allow it further scope of intensification.

IMD says it would remain a very severe cyclone while crossing. Currently, gale winds speeds reaching 100-110 km/hr gusting to 120 km/hr are prevailing over the South-West and adjoining West-Central Arabian Sea.

Sea conditions

This would scale up and become 120-130 km/hr gusting to 145 km/hr by tomorrow morning. Wind speeds will increase off South Oman-South-East Yemen coasts from tomorrow. Maximum wind speed of 150-160 km/hr gusting to 180 km/hr would start lashing the West-Central Arabian Sea from Friday evening.

Sea condition is 'high' (wave height of 20-30 ft) over South-West and adjoining West-Central Arabian Sea (not too far away from Lakshadweep Islands). This would become 'very high'' (wave heights of 30-46 ft) this evening and go on to become 'phenomenal' (above 46 ft in height, and the highest in terms of calibrated heights) from tomorrow morning.

Helpful MJO wave

Fishermen have been advised from venturing into the rough waters of the entire South-West Arabian Sea from today until Saturday when the very severe cyclone weakens on landfall. What drives the phenomenal strength of the cyclone is the presence of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave over West Indian Ocean (and adjoining South Arabian Sea), IMD said.

MJO wave is expected to remain there for the next five days, though reducing slightly in intensity. This would go a long way in further intensification of cyclone Mekunu. Additionally, the sea surface temperatures range between 29-31 deg Celsius, way above the threshold of 27.5 deg Celsius, which helps fuel the system as a whole.

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