Met forecasts more rain, snow in J&K

For the second time since the New Year, a full-blown low-pressure area is active over northwest India, bringing heavy to very heavy snow/rainfall over Jammu and Kashmir and neighbourhood yet again. A ‘low’ is a slow-moving weather system, and tends to drop anchor until the moisture that feeds into the system drains out in the form of heavy rain.

A ‘low’ is better associated with a monsoon system in India, typically noted for its sustained rain-generating capacity at a place over a given period. The amounts of rainfall are heavier unlike a cyclonic circulation that gets embedded into a western disturbance rolling its way into northwest India. A ‘low’ can carry significant loads of moisture. This moisture is mostly a legacy feature with a western disturbance picked along the way from the Mediterranean, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Arabian Sea pipes in incremental feeds if the western disturbance is deep enough to dip into the south, which in the current instance it is. The ‘low’ spins and the northwesterly winds mop up even more moisture, which has to drain out as the winds lift it along the Himalayas and cools.

Meanwhile, the Met Department said that two back-to-back western disturbances would hit northwest India on Tuesday and Thursday.

A forecast for the next 24 hours has warned that string surface winds would prevail over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Rajasthan and west Uttar Pradesh.

Satellite pictures on Monday afternoon showed convective (rain-driving) clouds standing tall over most parts of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand; many parts of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar; some parts of Jammu and Kashmir, east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Telangana, Assam and Meghalaya.

This meant that the western disturbance has started moving east: Some clouds were present over south Arabian Sea, south Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea.

Tuesday: Heavy rainfall over Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura.

Wednesday: Heavy rainfall/snowfall over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh.

Thursday: Thunderstorms accompanied by hailstorm over Punjab, west Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Rajasthan.

Heavy rain/snowfall over J&K, HP and Uttarakhand. Heavy rainfall over Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.

Friday: Thunderstorms accompanied by hailstorm over Punjab, west Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Rajasthan. Heavy rainfall/snowfall over Jammu and Kashmir and heavy rainfall/snowfall over HP and Uttarakhand.