Parts of South Tamil Nadu received moderate to heavy showers on another insipid day on Thursday when large parts of the State as well as the rest of the South Peninsula had to go without significant rain.

The forecast for Friday said heavy rain is likely over isolated places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and South Kerala despite the causatory low-pressure area over Comorin and Sri Lanka having weakened.

This leaves an incoming low-pressure area brewing over the Gulf of Thailand and adjoining Malay peninsula as the only hope for the South Peninsula in terms of the potential of some meaningful rain.

The India Met Department (IMD) expects this ‘low’ to emerge into the Andaman Sea by Friday and start intensifying. The system is expected to move west-north-west and become a depression, initially putting it on a course towards the Tamil Nadu coast.

A few global weather models have already indicated that a full-blooded cyclone would develop from out of the system, though a consensus eludes as to the likely route for its onward movement.

Wind-field projections by the IMD on Thursday take the system towards the North Tamil Nadu (Chennai) and adjoining South Andhra Pradesh coast for a landfall by November 14/15. But the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts fears the cyclone may drift towards Visakhapatnam, weaken, and head towards Chennai as a cyclonic circulation.

The IMD has forecast strong winds and ‘rough’ to ‘very rough’ sea conditions (waves rising to 8- to 20 ft) around the Andaman & Nicobar Islands and the Andaman Sea from Friday to Monday. The forecast is valid for the East-Central Bay and adjoining areas of West-Central and South-East Bay. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

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