‘Active’ to ‘vigorous’ monsoon conditions over the West Coast and the North-Eastern States are expected to continue for a week from Friday (until June 14).
The India Met Department (IMD) said that rainfall activity would increase over Coastal Karnataka, Goa and South Maharashtra from Thursday.
Strong monsoon
The widespread rainfall activity is likely to continue until Sunday, for now. It may extend to North Coastal Maharashtra, including Mumbai, from Friday.
There is possibility of extremely heavy rainfall at isolated places along these regions during this period. The strong monsoon conditions would bring squally winds with speeds reaching up to 50 km/hr and gusting to 60 km/hr along and off Konkan and Goa coasts from Saturday to Tuesday.
Sea condition will be ‘rough’ to ‘very rough’ off Konkan and Goa coasts as well as over farther into West-Central and adjoining South-West Arabian Sea off Somalia.
Meanwhile, the IMD has, on Thursday, extended the window for formation of an anticipated low-pressure area over North Bay of Bengal to next two days.
Breaks ‘jinx’ on coast
Earlier, it had said that the ‘low’ will form by Friday. The watch would continue into Saturday as well, adding a day to the ‘incubation’ period, bringing extended rains for the regions under reference. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is likely over major parts of the country except over parts of Rajasthan and North Gujarat — where the rainfall is likely to be isolated during the week. The IMD, however, added that the rainfall activity may decrease over the central and interior parts of Peninsular India, as the monsoon progresses further upcountry.
The monsoon managed to finally break the ‘jinx’ over the West Coast where its leading edge had been tied down to Shirali in Uttara Kannada district in Karnataka.
Its northern limit has left Shirali to Mormugao, 221 km to the North, and from there Gadag, Kurnool, Narsapur, Machlipatnam and further East to Agartala, Lumding, and North Lakhimpur.
Further progress
The monsoon has now advanced into remaining parts of Coastal Karnataka, most parts of South Interior Karnataka, Goa, and some parts of North Interior Karnataka.
Conditions are favourable for its advance into remaining parts of Goa, Karnataka and Rayalaseema; some parts of South Maharashtra, Telangana and Coastal Andhra Pradesh by Friday.
During Saturday to Monday, it may enter remaining parts of Maharashtra, some parts of South Gujarat, southern parts of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, West Bengal, Sikkim, and remaining parts of the Northeastern States.
The IMD expects the ‘low’ in the making over North Bay of Bengal to intensify as a depression and travel towards towards the West Bengal-Bangladesh coasts.
Global forecasts
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts appears to discount this possibility, but it is not as if the monsoon would not be any the worse for it.
A US Navy Global Environment Model appeared to make an optimistic assessment of the scenario by projecting the formation of a depression and its intensification in the Bay.
The UK Met model too is of the view that a deep depression is likely in the offing with a track initially to Bangladesh and later to the North-Eastern States of India.
The ensemble model of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction is persisting with its view for a follow-up ‘low’ developing near the Head Bay around June 20.
Significantly, it is shown crossing the Odisha coast and travelling straight to the West towards Madhya Pradesh, taking the monsoon current along with it into Central and, in due course, to West India.