Monsoon biding time to pull itself to the north

The northern limit of monsoon may not have still progressed beyond the Aminidivi, Kozhikode and Kodaikanal alignment covered by the initial pulse but it is only a matter of time if one were to go by the buzz building in the peninsular seas.

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update this (Wednesday) morning said conditions are favourable for its further advance into more parts of Arabian Sea, entire Kerala, more parts of Tamil Nadu, central and south Bay of Bengal and parts of Karnataka.

Formation of a low-pressure system in either of the seas could be the signal the well-endowed flows are waiting to latch on and drive in a strong follow-up pulse.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting has been suggesting that ‘low’s could spring up one after the other in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal by the weekend or early next.

The Arabian Sea ‘low’ is seen as sacrificing its offspring just to see its crucial counterpart in the Bay finds its way into mainland across the Andhra Pradesh-Orissa coast early next week.

With this, a full-blow monsoon will have been launched with both the peninsular seas rhyming in chorus and bringing rains into east and central India.

Satellite imagery early on Wednesday morning showed intensely convective clouds rising over north Kerala, coastal Karnataka, central and south Arabian Sea, north, east-central and southeast Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea.

The upper air cyclonic circulation over southeast Arabian Sea off Kerala coast persists. This could likely go on to set up the ‘low’ over central Arabian Sea before being guided away. But it will have brought the monsoon current into the west coast.

A weather warning said that isolated heavy rainfall would occur over coastal Karnataka, Lakshadweep, Kerala and Andaman and Nicobar Islands until Friday.

A short-term forecast valid until Saturday said that widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Kerala, coastal Karnataka, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands. It would be fairly widespread over interior Karnataka and scattered over rest peninsular India.

Scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over Konkan and Goa and isolated over rest Maharashtra and increase from tomorrow (Thursday). An extended forecast valid until Monday said that widespread rain or thundershowers would break out along the west coast.

Meanwhile in the northwest, the maximum temperatures are near normal over most parts of the country. The highest maximum on Tuesday of 45.8 deg Celsius was recorded at Jhalawar in Rajasthan.

But an incoming western disturbance is forecast to affect northwest India until Friday. An upper air cyclonic circulation over north Rajasthan has led to the massing up of convective clouds over Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh.

A weather warning for the region said that isolated dust storms or thunderstorms accompanied with squalls would occur over Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and west Uttar Pradesh until Friday. This would also lead to a fall in maximum temperatures by 3 to 4 deg C over the region during this period.

Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers has been forecast over the western Himalayan region, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh and scattered over rest northwest India. Mainly dry weather would prevail in the region from early next week.

To wards the east, a weather-making upper air cyclonic circulation over north Chhattisgarh has generated a trough that runs down to Rayalaseema across Tripura, Mizoram, south Orissa and south Chhattisgarh,

Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers are likely over the Northeastern States, West Bengal and Sikkim while it will be scattered over the rest of east India and isolated over central India.

A weather warning said that severe thunder squalls may roll out over some parts of West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, Jharkhand and Orissa until Friday. Isolated thunder squalls are likely over east Uttar Pradesh, the Northeastern states and Chhattisgarh.

An extended forecast valid until Monday next said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over the Northeastern States and adjoining east India.