The southwest monsoon managed to break out of a rut where it was held up for a week and inch its way into slightly to the north and east by Wednesday.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) declared that seasonal rains had entered parts of Madhya Maharashtra, interior Karnataka and most parts of Tamil Nadu.
NORTHERN LIMIT
They have also now covered entire south Bay of Bengal and more parts of central and North Bay of Bengal.
The northern limit of monsoon passed through Harnai, Satara, Gadag, Mysore, Vellore, Chennai and Gangtok.
It may further advance into entire central Arabian Sea, Konkan and Tamil Nadu and more parts of Madhya Maharashtra during next two days.
Entire interior Karnataka and Bay of Bengal and some parts of Andhra Pradesh also may get covered during the next two days.
A warning valid for the period said that heavy rainfall may lash parts of Assam, Meghalaya, Kerala, coastal Karnataka and Konkan and Goa during this period.
PACIFIC STORM
The monsoon will have to contend with a fresh named northwest Pacific storm, Guchol, which is forecast to follow the track of predecessor ‘Mawar.’
A band of southwesterly flows are currently being directed into ‘Guchol’ across the Bay of Bengal to its current location east of the Philippines.
‘Mawar’ had helped precipitate the onset of monsoon over mainland India, but it also siphoned off moisture, weakening rains here.
The London-based Tropical Storm Group says ‘Guchol’ would intensify into a typhoon (cyclone) by Friday and retain the status until Monday.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts says the monsoon might go into a brief lull as early as from Thursday.
BAY CIRCULATION
Rains may resume by Monday as ‘Guchol’ starts to weaken. Subsequently, a cyclonic circulation is forecast to build over northwest Bay of Bengal later.
This is the most ideal location for such a weather system viewed from the view point of monsoon.
This circulation is now expected to bring the monsoon current into eastern India.